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Tuesday
Regional Big Island Weather Forecast Hawaii County Weather Forecast for October 23, 2024
Hilo
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then cloudy with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. West winds around 10 mph.
Kona
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. A 40 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny early in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.
Waimea
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with chance of showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 55 to 61 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then cloudy with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 84. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with chance of showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with chance of showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 55 to 61 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then cloudy with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 84. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with chance of showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. A 40 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Puna
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then cloudy with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. West winds around 10 mph.
Waikoloa
Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny early in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. A 40 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Light winds and mostly dry weather will prevail for the next couple of days. Strengthening trade winds and increasing low to mid level moisture this weekend will bring an increase in showers, some potentially heavy, especially over windward areas.
Discussion
Visible satellite imagery shows limited low clouds and showers moving into leeward areas from the east this afternoon, along with some sea breeze induced inland cloud build ups. Patchy dense cirrus can also be seen moving across the region from the west.
With low pressure systems to both the northwest and northeast of the state maintaining a weak local pressure gradient, winds are expected to remain light through most of the work week. This weaker background flow will allow daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes to bring interior cloud build ups through the day followed by clearing at night. Ridging aloft and a relatively dry airmass moving over the state will help to limit shower development over the next couple of days. In addition, the subtropical jet to the west of the state will continue to provide periods of high clouds over the region through the week, especially tonight through tomorrow.
This drier pattern with light winds will likely transition to a more active pattern this weekend as a combination of factors contribute to increasing trade wind speeds, atmospheric instability and moisture.
Surface high pressure will build north of the islands behind the low well to the northeast that will be quickly pushing off to the east from Friday into early next week. This will allow the trade winds to strengthen across the region and become breezy by Sunday. The ridge aloft will weaken over the weekend as an upper level low moves over the area from the north, but model guidance remains inconsistent as to the timing and location of this low. Model guidance indicates that low to mid level moisture from a slow- moving front that will approach the islands this weekend along with some deep tropical moisture moving in on the trades will move across the islands sometime this weekend through early next week. This moisture combined with the instability aloft associated with the upper low could bring the potential for some heavy showers (and even snow on the Big Island Summits) this weekend. However, forecast confidence remains on the lower end for this weekend and beyond due to model discrepancies. Regardless of heavy rain or even summit snowfall potential, rainfall would likely favor windward areas with the trade winds prevailing.
Aviation
A cold front far north of the state will slowly drift south and keep light winds in the forecast through at least Wednesday. Lighter large scale winds will allow afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes to develop over all islands. This will result in some cloud build-ups over island interiors each afternoon, then clearing overnight. A weak ridge aloft will also produce stable conditions across the state with limited clouds and only a few showers possible. No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.
Marine
A surface ridge to the north will remain weak for the next several days as broad low pressure meanders well northwest of the state. Expect land and sea breeze conditions near the coasts, with diurnally driven accelerations potentially leading to fresh breezes during the afternoons. A return of fresh to strong easterly trades is likely over the weekend as the ridge strengthens to the north. By early next week widespread fresh to strong easterly trade winds are expected and Small Craft Advisories (SCA) will be possible for many coastal zones.
Daytime ASCAT pass showed a wide fetch of fresh to strong north-northeast winds with pockets of gales roughly 700nm north of the state today. This should lead to an increase of surf along north and east-facing shores Wednesday through Thursday with reinforcing pulses out of north-northeast swells towards the end of the work week as a low pressure system deepens far northeast of the state over the next few days. The first pulse may bring surf to near advisory levels for east facing shores (10 ft faces) as early as Thursday, but the reinforcing swell Friday into Saturday will likely bring surf near advisory levels for east facing shores. For the long-range, guidance shows a gale- to storm- force low tracking eastward from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska late Wednesday through Friday. If this materializes, a small long- period northerly swell could arrive late Sunday into early next week from this feature.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small, with predominantly a mix of short- to medium-period southeast and long- period south to south-southwest swells. Nearshore buoys did pick up on a small long-period swell that filled in today out of the south- southwest, which should hold through Wednesday before declining. A slightly larger south swell is possible this weekend.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov