Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then clear after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy trades will continue through the week. Showers will favor windward areas, and some will briefly pass over leeward communities on the gusty winds. Bands of moisture within the trades will bring periods of increased rainfall.

Discussion

Breezy to locally windy trades will persist into tonight. The trades are being driven by a strong 1035 mb surface high centered nearly 1100 miles northeast of the state. A disturbance aloft continues to keep the inversion somewhat weak and elevated, but a mid-level ridge over the region remains strong enough to produce some stability. As a result, winds continue to be enhanced over and downwind of terrain, especially on the Big Island, Maui, and Lanai where a Wind Advisory is in place. The surface high will begin to gradually weaken and creep eastward tonight, leading to slightly easing winds. However, given the strength of the winds this afternoon, the Wind Advisory has been extended through the night to account for downsloping winds that tend to be prevalent during the evening. A rather typical pattern of mainly windward showers, with a few briefly spreading leeward, will persist. A band of shallow moisture in the trades will fuel more frequent showers near Kauai and Oahu, while drier conditions are expected farther south, especially on the Big Island.
An extended period of trade winds will continue through at least the middle of next week. Trades will ease to moderate to locally breezy levels late Thursday as the above mentioned surface high is pushed eastward. However, winds will ramp up again late Saturday as another strong surface high develops north of the islands. The area of moisture currently affecting the state will move off to the west on Thursday, which may lead to a slight decrease in shower activity Friday and Saturday. Another band of moisture will likely pass over the islands Sunday and Monday and produce an increase in mainly windward shower activity.

Aviation

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will continue to blow across the state through at least tonight, with a slight decrease in wind speeds tomorrow. Periods of clouds and showers remain in the forecast, favoring the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility will be possible in showers.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence below 8000 feet over and downstream of island mountains due to the breezy to locally windy trade winds. This AIRMET may need to be extended through the next couple of days due to the stronger trade winds.

Marine

Strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds will persist as strong high pressure remains north-northeast of the area. Seas will remain rough, with a combination of short-period wind- generated seas and northwest swells moving through. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue for all Hawaiian waters through Thursday and may be extended into the weekend due to a combination of winds and seas.
Surf along exposed north and west-facing shores will continue to ease into Thursday as a northwest swell moves out. An upward trend is expected late Thursday through Saturday as a couple of northwest (320-330 degrees) swells arrive, peaking Friday night through Saturday. This may push surf heights back to advisory levels at the peak late Friday through Saturday. A downward trend is then expected Sunday through early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough through the rest of the week due to strong easterly trade winds.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small, with mainly background south and southeast swells.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov