Hilo

Tonight: Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 65 near the shore to 45 to 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday: Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 60 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 65 near the shore to 46 to 53 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 41 to 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to 43 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 65 near the shore to 45 to 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday: Showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 75 near the shore to around 60 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 65 near the shore to 46 to 53 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 43 to 49 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 61 to 68 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to 45 to 51 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 30 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A breezy to windy trade wind pattern will gradually wane through the rest of the week. Moisture embedded in the trades will allow showers to favor windward and mauka areas. An overall wetter pattern is possible this weekend as additional moisture is drawn over the island chain.

Short term update

Issued at 829 PM HST Wed Feb 18 2026
No major changes to the forecast this evening, as things remain on track. Continuing to monitor wind trends throughout night. Additional refinements to the forecast for late Friday through the weekend are likely with the full forecast package update early Thursday morning.

Prev discussion

Issued at 319 PM HST Wed Feb 18 2026
At the surface, strong high pressure remains centered north- northeast of the islands, with a front located northwest of Kauai. Winds across the state are at or very near advisory levels which are sustained speeds of 30-39 mph and/or gusts 50-57 mph, especially over higher terrain, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains. Latest observations show that the strongest gusts have occurred over the typically windier locations of Molokai, Maui County and the Big Island, with Gales in the windier waters and channels surrounding Maui County and the Big Island.
A mid-level dry airmass will remain in place in support of a strong inversion. Gradient winds are expected to remain nearly unchanged as the surface high remains to our north and the front remains nearly stationary to our west. Based on this, the Wind Advisory has been extended in time through 6am HST Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, winds will begin to slowly decrease, but still remain locally strong throughout the rest of the week.
As far as precipitation is concerned, little change is expected over the next few days, with showers and clouds embedded within the trades favoring windward and mauka areas. Things begin to get a bit more interesting over the weekend, as an overall pattern shift may lead to few days of wet and unstable trades this weekend into early next week.
Latest guidance remains in good agreement that moist southeast flow in the lower levels could expand moisture over the islands this weekend, then stall it over the state into Sunday. This is being closely monitored for potential flooding that could develop in this scenario. Forecast confidence will largely depend on the expected strength of trades, which will in turn modulate forward motion of showers. Guidance indicates that the islands could reside somewhere along the gradient between stronger trades to the east and light southeast flow to the west (where exactly this sets up could make for a large difference in rainfall potential for the islands). Still too early for specifics and what impacts we will face. Please continue to monitor forecasts in the coming days as details begin to iron out.

Aviation

Issued at 319 PM HST Wed Feb 18 2026
Breezy to strong easterly trade winds are expected to ease slightly on Thursday as the strong high pressure to the north temporarily weakens. Mid level ridging will keep conditions stable, which could enhance the wind gusts, as well as keep showers relatively shallow and light. Showers will focus over mainly windward and mountain areas, and will likely be more widespread during the overnight hours. Conditions should stay mostly VFR with pockets of MVFR at night with any passing showers.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of the strong low level winds. This AIRMET will likely continue through tonight.

Marine

Issued at 319 PM HST Wed Feb 18 2026
Strong high pressure will remain far northeast of the state during the next couple of days, as a slow moving front approaches from the west. The front will stall out and weaken into a trough just a few hundred miles west of the islands this weekend, with a new high building in to the distant north. A Gale Warning has been extended for the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels through tonight, with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in effect for all other waters through Thursday afternoon. The trade winds and seas are then expected to gradually lower Friday through the weekend. Some unsettled weather is expected over the weekend as an upper level trough moves over the state. Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters and may be possible over the coastal waters as well, especially windward waters.
Surf will hold relatively steady along east facing shores during the next couple of days, and as a result the High Surf Advisory (HSA) is in effect through Thursday afternoon. As the trade winds gradually ease Thursday into the weekend, surf along east facing shores will gradually lower below HSA thresholds.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain well below seasonal levels through the weekend, and surf along south facing shores will remain small.
Forerunners from a large, long-period north to north-northeast swell are forecast to arrive Sunday night, then rapidly build to near warning levels along north facing shores Monday through Tuesday. Also due to the northerly direction, elevated surf heights are expected along west Maui and west Big Island near Kua Bay. Surf heights are expected to reach advisory threshold for west Big Island on Monday and could reach advisory threshold for west Maui as well. Lastly, due to the large swell and northerly direction (010-030 degrees), heavy surges are expected along north facing harbors such as Kahului and Hilo harbors.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Kahoolawe, Kohala, Koolau Leeward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai Mauka, Lanai South, Lanai Windward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Maui Windward West, Molokai North, Molokai Southeast, Molokai West, Molokai Windward, South Haleakala, Waianae Mountains, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov