Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75 near the shore to around 61 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to around 61 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 78 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 89 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 70 to 77 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to 63 to 70 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 87. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to 63 to 70 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to 63 to 70 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 69 to 87. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to 63 to 70 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 78 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 78 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75 near the shore to around 61 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to around 61 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 76 near the shore to 58 to 63 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 92 near the shore to around 74 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows 73 to 78 near the shore to around 60 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moisture associated with the remnants of Norbert will continue to move from east to west across the state through Friday, bringing more widespread shower activity, especially for windward and mauka locations. Some showers will be heavy at times with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all the main Hawaiian islands through early Friday morning. Drier air will move back in this weekend behind the departing trough. Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Depression 15-E may bring another round of enhanced trade showers by the middle of next week.

Discussion

Afternoon satellite and radar imagery shows clusters of deeper convection south of the islands and east of Oahu. An upper level trough and associated moisture from former tropical cyclone Norbert will continue to move west across the state into Friday. This band of moisture is now extending as far west as the windward side of Oahu. Weak to moderate instability will continue the threat of heavier showers and thunderstorms, especially on the windward and mauka locations and the Kona slopes on the Big Island. Thunderstorms with rain rates in excess of 1 inch per hour were already observed on the Big Island earlier this afternoon. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all main Hawaiian Islands through 6 AM Friday.
The trough will slowly depart to the west of the state on Friday, but some lingering moisture may be enough for heavier showers to stick around near Kauai. Weak instability developing in the afternoon could lead to another round of enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon over leeward slopes of the Big Island.
Saturday through Monday, moderate trades will help filter drier air back into the lower levels for more isolated to scattered coverage of showers during the evening into the night on the windward areas.
Tuesday through Thursday, there is yet another potential push of deeper moisture from the remnants of Tropical Depression 15-E. Global ensembles are in generally good agreement with ensemble average precipitable water in excess of 2″ sometime Tuesday through Thursday. A short wave passing just south of the islands may provide additional lift and instability for more widespread and heavier showers.

Aviation

An approaching easterly trough, the remnants of TC Norbert, will be passing over the islands through Friday. This trough is pulling in a more moist air mass. This will result in a greater frequency of showers with brief periods of moderate intensity rain. Decks will lower tempo into IFR/MVFR categories during times of more intense rainfall. Typically breezy trades will persist through the period with wind-sheltered area breezes remaining light and variable.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for island-wide, windward exposed mountain obscuration near or above 2,000 ft.

Marine

Moisture from the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Norbert and a trough aloft will bring a chance of thunderstorms through Friday morning. Trade winds will strengthen slightly through this weekend and maintain through much of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is posted for the typical windy waters around Maui County and Big Island through Friday night, and will likely continue through the weekend into next week for these areas.
A south swell will fill in early Friday and surf will reach near advisory levels by Saturday. Surf along east-facing shores will maintain over the next several days as the east swell from Norbert declines, but it replaced by chop from the building trade winds. Flat to tiny surf along north facing shores is expected through the forecast period.

Fire weather

Fire weather risk will remain low through Friday due to moderate to breezy winds and increased relative humidity and moisture from the remnants of Norbert. Showers will decrease by this weekend. Inversion heights will be elevated or very weak.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch through late tonight for Big Island East, Big Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island Summits, Central Oahu, East Honolulu, Ewa Plain, Haleakala Summit, Honolulu Metro, Kahoolawe, Kauai East, Kauai Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, Kipahulu, Kohala, Kona, Koolau Leeward, Koolau Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai Mauka, Lanai South, Lanai Windward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, Molokai Leeward South, Molokai North, Molokai Southeast, Molokai West, Molokai Windward, Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, South Haleakala, South Maui/Upcountry, Waianae Coast, Waianae Mountains, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov