UPDATES: Kiko Strengthening to Hurricane Status; Other Storms Brewing in Central Pacific

Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2019

11 AM: KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN

11 AM, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2019. TS Kiko. PC: NOAA

The center of Tropical Storm Kiko is located near latitude 15.8 N, longitude 127.3 W, about 1,235 miles WSW of Baja. The tropical storm is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph. A westward track is expected later this afternoon or evening, followed by a west-northwest motion on Thursday and Friday. Kiko is then forecast to turn westward once again by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane again on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

5 AM: KIKO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND STRENGTHENING

Tropical Storm Kiko. PC: NOAA

At 5 a.m, the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.0°N, longitude 126.7° W, about 1,190 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja, Calif.

Kiko is moving toward the WSW near 6 mph. A westward track is likely later today, followed by a WNW motion on Thursday and Friday, and a westward motion on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.

Kiko could become a hurricane again on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 29.56 inches.

5 AM: MARIO STRENGTHENING & FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT

(L–R) Kiko, Mario. Lorena. PC: NOAA

At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 14.5°N, longitude 111.0°W, about 585 miles S of the southern tip of of Baja, Calif.

Mario is moving toward the NW near 12 mph. This motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a decrease in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Mario is expected to become nearly stationary from early Friday through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph, with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 29.42 inches.

5 AM: HURRICANE LORENA WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SW COAST OF MEXICO

(L–R) Kiko, Mario. Lorena. PC: NOAA

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the SW coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita.

2 AM: TWO STORMS WEST OF HONOLULU, ONE SOUTH OF HILO

Three disturbances and Kiko, far right. PC: NOAA

5 AM: Sept 18, 2019: TWO STORMS WEST OF HONOLULU, ONE SOUTH OF HILO

Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low pressure around 480 miles WSW of Honolulu. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some development through today as the system moves toward the north NW. By late tonight or Thursday, chances for development drop off significantly as the low interacts with another disturbance approaching from the NW. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several days.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40%.
• Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40%.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low pressure, located about 880 miles west of Honolulu remain disorganized. This system is expected to slowly move north NE into unfavorable environmental conditions later today. By late tonight or Thursday, chances for development drop off significantly as the low interacts with another disturbance approaching from the NW. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several days.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
• Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure lies around 700 miles south of Hilo. Slow development is possible during the next several days while the area slowly moves NW, though the environmental conditions are only marginally favorable.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.