Lowell forecast to be west of Niʻihau by Monday afternoon, bringing possible hurricane force winds to Kauaʻi County
"While it is still too soon to determine the exact track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaiʻi early next week," said the 5 p.m. advisory update Thursday from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center; Lowell's center as of that update was expected to be west of Niʻihau by Monday afternoon.
This story was updated on Sept. 3 at 6:09 p.m.
Hurricane Lowell remains a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and is tracking west at 9 mph.
“Currently, it is expected to pass just west of Kauaʻi as a major [Category] 3 hurricane,” said National Weather Service forecasters in a Thursday afternoon update on Facebook. “There is a 10% chance for hurricane force winds for locations on Kauaʻi at the time of this forecast.”
The post added that probabilities will likely change in the coming days as forecast confidence increases. Forecasters urged everyone in Lowell’s possible path to watch updates closely and be prepared.
“Please keep a close eye on the forecast over the next few days and don’t forget to have your hurricane plan and supply kit in place before next week if you haven’t done so yet,” the post said.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. advisory update Thursday was somewhat more conservative, but still bringing the storm — as a hurricane — to the Garden Isle’s door.
The update said Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when the storm moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night.
“While it is still too soon to determine the exact track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaiʻi early next week,” the update said.
The swells generated by the hurricane are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in parts of the islands during the next several days and they are forecast to likely increase early next week.
“Swells from Hurricane Lowell [have] filled in and will remain elevated above high surf advisory conditions through Friday,” said National Weather Service forecasters in Honolulu in an advisory update Thursday. “The swell will gradually veer from southeast toward the southwest early next week.”
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at this time.
Forecasters advised that the public should continue closely monitoring Lowell’s progress throughout the Labor Day Weekend, listen to the advice from local officials and ensure their hurricane plans and supply kits are in place.
Lowell was located about 590 miles south of Līhuʻe, Kauaʻi, or about 800 miles south-southwest of Hilo, as of 5 p.m. Thursday.
Hurricane force winds extended outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm force winds extended up to 140 miles outward from the storm’s center as it continued its westward trek, with a general decrease in forward speed and motion expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center/Central Pacific Hurricane Center track forecast cone, sometimes called the “cone of uncertainty,” shows the center of Lowell moving west of Niʻihau sometime after 2 p.m. Monday, with all of Kauaʻi County having between 20% and right on the edge of 70% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds or higher.
Graphics also show those winds are likely to arrive by about 8 a.m. Monday, well before Lowell’s center is forecast to move past Kauaʻi County. Oʻahu also has a chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds by the same time.
The public should pay attention to National Weather Service in Honolulu for additional forecasts related to specific locations plus any advisories, watches or warnings issued.
Additional tropical cyclone activity to the east
There also are two storms in the Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Karina and Hurricane Marie. While neither are expected to present any severe weather impacts to the state, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center continue to monitor them closely.
Hawaiʻi County urges preparedness
Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense encourages residents and businesses to review or develop preparedness plans now, before the next storm arrives.
Contact Civil Defense at 808-935-0031 or visit the Civil Defense website if you have any questions or require assistance.
Check the Hawai‘i County Hazard Impact Map for even more information.
