Lowell now a Category 4 hurricane; strong swells continue to move northward through island chain
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane hunters reported the decrease in intensity Wednesday afternoon; high surf advisory is in effect for the southeast portion of the Big Island until 6 p.m. Thursday.
This story was updated on Sept. 2 at 6:53 p.m.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane hunters report Lowell is now a Category 4 hurricane as of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center update advisory at 5 p.m. Wednesday.
And the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next several days.
Swells generated by Lowell are spreading northward throughout the islands and affect portions of the state throughout the next several days. They likely will cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
The National Weather Service in Honolulu issued a high surf advisory through 6 p.m. Thursday.
Swells from Hurricane Lowell were expected to quickly fill in Wednesday, producing surf from 7 to 10 feet for southeast Big Island. Additionally, a moderate long-period south swell filled in Tuesday night, producing elevated surf along southern exposures.
The public should pay attention to National Weather Service in Honolulu for additional forecasts, changes and any other advisories, watches or warnings are posted. Forecasts for specific locations can be found on the National Weather Service website.
No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
The center of Hurricane Lowell was located about 440 miles south of Hilo by 5 p.m. and the storm was exhibiting maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, with higher gusts and hurricane force winds extending up to 35 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 90 miles outward from the storm’s center.
The storm was moving west at 10 mph.
That general motion, with a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue, along with some fluctuations in intensity also forecast; however, Lowell is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next several days.
Lowell is being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Because of this, the hurricane should continue moving westward for the next 2 to 3 days. After that, the track wil be controlled by a developing mid- to upper-level trough or low seen in water vapor imagery.
Global forecast models forecast that feature to move east or southeast towared the islands during the next several days, then turn west to the north of Lowell. This would likely break down the ridge north of the hurricane and allow it to turn northward; however, there is a wide spread of possibilities of when and where that turn could happen.
The model consensus again shifted a little eastward, and the new forecast track is again nudged a little eastward.
The hurricane is expected to stay in a favorable environment of high oceanic heat content and low shear for at least the next 3 days. However, the intensity guidance calls for slow decay during this time despite the favorable environment.
Based on this, the intensity forecast also calls for slow decay. It is likely, though,
that eyewall replacement cycles will cause fluctuations in intensity superimposed on the slow decay.
Lowell should start experiencing increasing shear caused by the upper-level trough, and a more pronounced weakening could begin by about Day 5. There remains high confidence that Lowell will remain a major hurricane through the weekend.
Additional tropical cyclone activity to the east
There also are two storms in the Eastern Pacific: Category 4 Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie.
Hurricane Karina weakened slightly this afternoon now; although, it is still a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 mph. A slow weakening is still in the forecast, followed by a more steady rate of weaking during the next several days. It is now 1,325 miles east of Hilo.
Tropical Storm Marie became Category 1 Hurricane Marie on Wednesday afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The storm is now located about 375 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Hurricanes Lowell and Karina are not expected to present any severe weather impacts to the state, and continue to be monitored closely.
Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense encourages residents and businesses to review or develop preparedness plans now, before the next storm arrives.
Contact Civil Defense at 808-935-0031 or visit the Civil Defense website if you have any questions or require assistance.
Check the Hawai‘i County Hazard Impact Map for even more information.
