Tropical Storm Hone forms in Central Pacific, expected to pass near or south of Big Island this weekend

It’s a scenario many have been dreading but one forecasters have said for days was nearly inevitable.

Hang on to your hats, patio furniture and anything else that can be blown away, Big Island, because the weather is about to take a tropical cyclone spin.

Two low-pressure systems merged to become Tropical Depression One-C earlier this morning and then rapidly intensified within a matter of hours to officially form Tropical Storm Hone by 11 a.m. today.

The storm was located 885 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 915 miles east-southeast of South Point, moving west-northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

Hone is expected to continue moving in that direction for the next couple of days, with some additional strengthening forecast.

The storm could be close to hurricane strength by this weekend as its center passes to the south or near the Big Island. Tropical storm watches could be required for parts of the islands by tonight or Friday.

Tropical-strom-force winds extend outward from the storm’s center up to 15 miles.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said wind shear, which normally helps eat away at tropical cyclones as they get closer to Hawai‘i, is light to moderate and ocean temperatures are marginally warm along Hone’s storm track, which will allow it to strengthen.

However, late in the weekend and into early next week, it will begin to encounter an increase in westerly vertical wind shear and possibly drier mid-level air that should lead to its gradual weakening.

“At this time, it is unknown the level of impact this storm will have on the Island of Hawai‘i,” said Hawai‘i County Civil Defense in a tropical cyclone information statement at 10:11 a.m. today. “Be advised that the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles from its center. Tropical cyclone effects include dangerous surf, high winds and flooding rains.”

Civil Defense is monitoring the situation.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s latest forecast at 11 a.m. said that total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with some locally higher, are possible Saturday through Monday along windward areas of the Big Island, with the potential for 2 to 4 inches over windward locations on the other islands.

Swells generated by Tropical Storm Hone are forecast to begin reaching the islands during the weekend and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Wind will be the other main threat, with strong and gusty winds expected to develop over the state this weekend as Hone passes near or south of the Big Island.

“Breezy trade winds will persist through Friday, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations,” said the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu in its Hawai‘i area synopsis at 11:12 a.m. “While it is too early to determine the exact impacts, a transition to a wet and windy period is likely over the weekend through early next week as this tropical storm approaches and moves into the area.”

Hawai‘i County public information officer Cyrus Johnasen said as is standard procedure, the county is holding regular internal meetings as the weather pattern approaches. Personnel also are on standby for situations such as shelter openings and road inundation or flooding.

“We take all significant weather events seriously and work in coordination with internal and external partners — including utilities, private landowners and state entities — to ensure everyone is prepared and aligned in response efforts,” said Johnasen. “The safety of our residents remains our top priority.”

The county also has been working closely with the International Va‘a Federation, Hawaiian Canoe Racing Association and other organizers and teams to plan and address any potential impacts the impending weather could have on the IVF Va‘a World Sprint Championships 2024 taking place in Hilo Bay, which are set to conclude Friday.

Those discussions have covered potential changes to parking areas, pedestrian and traffic patterns and paddler safety. Alternate locations for the final ceremony, which is scheduled for about 4:15 p.m. Friday following the final race, also have been discussed.

The U.S. Coast Guard Sector Honolulu is urging Hawai‘i residents and mariners to take precautions, heed weather warnings and stay safe as Tropical Storm Hone is expected to impact the islands Saturday through Monday.

Mariners, beachgoers and community members are encouraged to take the following precautions:

• Store your boat or personal watercraft in a secure location.
• Secure all paddlecraft so they do not end up in the water and cause false distress.
• Remove all emergency position indicating radio beacons, life rings, life jackets and loose items from your vessel.
• Contact local marinas and ask for advice on securing your vessel.
• If your boat is too large to be removed from the water, move it to a safe haven well before the storm approaches.
• Stay off the water because of potentially hazardous conditions.
• Continuously monitor the weather and heed all warnings and broadcasts.
• Stay off rocks and jetties, as waves can be unpredictable.

The National Weather Service Honolulu office and Central Pacific Hurricane Center said in a Aug. 14 post on their Facebook page that the best time to prepare for hurricanes and tropical storms is before hurricane season begins, “but if you’re not yet prepared, it’s better late than never!”

Not only do the weather agencies suggest getting disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, they suggest taking a look at their other tips online.

“Please take this time to review your family emergency plan for hurricanes and your emergency kit,” said Hawai‘i County Civil Defense’s statement.

You can visit the tropical cyclone resources at the Civil Defense website for more information.

Hawaiian Electric also is urging customers to review family and business emergency plans, make sure they have necessary supplies on hand and keep a close watch on the storm. The electric utility is taking steps to prepare for any impacts it could experience from the storm as well.

Additional preparation and safety tips are available on the Hawaiian Electric website.

“Iselle was a nightmare … let’s hope this settles down … get candles, flashlights, water, easy prep foods,” commented Malia Porsche on an Aug. 18 post in the Puna Weather group on Facebook by Harry Durgin, administrator of the group who has been posting weather forecasts on the page since he created it in November 2014. “Pray and help each other. Puna Strong.”

“Crossing fingers it will veer to the south and [miss] us with winds,” added Kim Larson.

Juli Wood thanked Durgin for his insights in a comment on his Tuesday update about the situation and added: “Time to make sure we are prepared.”

The storm has already caused the cancellation of some events around the Big Island.

The Big Island Art Fair in Waimea had several artists drop out because of weather concerns related to the impending storm, so out of an abundance of caution organizers decided to cancel this month’s event. The next fair will be Oct. 24-26.

Maku‘u Farmers Market outside Pāhoa also announced that it made the decision to be safe and close the market this Sunday with the storm approaching.

The Central Pacific hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

It’s been such a quiet season since it started June 1, but now it’s not just one storm coming our way to think about. It could be three.

Behind Tropical Storm Hone is Hurricane Gilma, which has been swirling in the Eastern Pacific for the past several days and is now a Category 3 monstrosity with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

The hurricane is moving west-northwest at 7 mph. It was located 1,980 miles east of Hilo and 2,015 miles east of South Point as of 11 a.m. today.

There’s also another broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south of the Baja California peninsula that continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Eastern Pacific.

Conditions continue to generally favor development during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwest at about 10 mph into the central part of the Eastern Pacific.

There’s a 50% chance of a tropical cyclone forming during the next 48 days. That chance increases to 80% in the next week.