Several areas in Central, Eastern Pacific being monitored for tropical development

It’s been such a quiet hurricane season for the Central Pacific. But that doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen.

In fact, the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu is monitoring a few areas where low-pressure systems could organize into anything more than better thunderstorm activity.

One in the Eastern Pacific, offshore of southwestern Mexico, does have an 80% chance in the next 7 days of becoming a tropical cyclone.

But none at this time are expected to directly move into or over the Hawaiian Islands.

In the Central Pacific, disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure about 700 miles southeast of Hilo at about 8 a.m. this morning. It was moving at about 10 mph.

Forecasters said conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of the system during the weekend or early next week, but it only has a 40% chance of becoming anything more than a stronger thunderstorm and rain during the next week.

A second area of low pressure could form by early next week about 1,350 miles east-southeast of Hilo, more than 1,000 miles west-southwest from the tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could arise in the middle or latter part of next week as the system moves west from the western portion of the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific basin.

However, there is only a 50% chance right now that it could become a tropical cyclone.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific has a better chance of becoming something more.

The system is in a spot ripe for gradual development during the next few days and is associated with a tropical wave. A tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwest at about 10 mph away from the Mexico coast.

As of 8 a.m. this morning, forecasters said it had about a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. That probability goes up to 80% during the next 7 days.

The more immediate weather concern for the state this weekend are the arrival of King Tides, which could bring minor coastal flooding to shorelines throughout the islands.

The National Weather Service says the upcoming high tides are a combination of the full moon and water levels running about half a foot higher than predicted.

Otherwise, the forecast as of early this morning called for numerous showers in the morning becoming scattered by the afternoon for the windward side of the Big Island, eventually giving way to partly cloudy skies for today and Saturday.

The leeward areas of the island are expected to be mostly sunny, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a few isolated showers expected later in the day.

Highs should be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Scattered showers are forecast during the day Sunday through Tuesday with occasional showers at night for windward areas under mostly cloudy skies, while the leeward side will be partly cloudy with scattered showers during the day and isolated rain at night.

Highs should range from about 85 to 90 degrees and lows from 72 to 77, with east winds around 15 mph.

Showers will favor windward and mauka locations throughout the state, with some spilling into leeward areas, especially during the overnight and into the early morning hours.

Chances of showers could increase particularly Saturday night into next week as an area of enhanced moisture moves across the state from east to west.

Moderate to locally strong trade winds are also forecast to persist through Saturday. A slight decrease is possible, however, by early next week.

While no significant rainfall is forecast throughout the weekend, the precipation oulook beyond Sunday is the kicker.

It depends on if there’s some kind of tropical disturbance development southeast of the state during the next few days.

Any possible tropical disturbance that would form is expected to pass just south of the state early next week, and there would be a chance for heavier showers depending on how close it passes.

So there is plenty of uncertainty in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

But after Tuesday and through the middle of next week, typical breezy trade wind weather should return, with some passing showers from time to time.