Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 56 to 61 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 56 to 61 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 69 to 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. West winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 60 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 68 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 60 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 60 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 68 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 60 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 56 to 61 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 56 to 61 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to 54 to 60 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Gusts up to 35 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to around 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to 54 to 59 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the evening.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades continue well into next week with limited showers directed windward and mauka during this time.

Discussion

Benign trade wind pattern through the forecast period as strong longwave ridging approaching 598dm at 500mb remains anchored along 170W longitude. This in turn favors expansive surface high pressure in maintenance of breezy trades through the middle of next week. An uptick in showers for windward and mauka zones is possible next week as moisture off the California coast becomes entrained in the trades, reaching the islands around Wednesday.
The tropics remain remain active with the primary focus at the moment being Tropical Storm Lowell. This system is forecast by NHC to become a hurricane this weekend. Even though it is already around 135W, or about 1500 miles SE of Hilo, weak steering winds delay any potential arrival to/around the Hawaiian islands to beyond the 7 day forecast period.

Aviation

For 00Z – Moderate trades regime continues. Mostly VFR through the TAF period with some MVFR conditions with passing heavier showers/lower CIGs, highest chances this afternoon and overnight. Expect low CIGs and SHRA over windward and mauka slopes most areas and reflected as VCSH most TAFs.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.

Marine

High pressure located far north of the waters will remain nearly stationary through the forecast period maintaining moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Saturday night. SCA conditions look to persist through the beginning of next week.
Surf along south facing shores have peaked through the day just just below advisory levels today as the moderate medium to long period south swell will likely slowly start to decline through the night. Another south swell similar in size is expected during the middle of next week bringing surf back up to near High Surf Advisory level conditions.
Surf along east facing shores will remain choppy in response to the locally strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands. A small medium period east swell from Tropical Storm Iselle has filled in and will hold through Saturday. Another round of east to southeast swells are possible late next week but remains at high uncertainty due to the potential track and intensity of Tropical Storms in the east pacific.

Fire weather

Breezy trades continue well into next week as RH remains elevated courtesy of dewpoints hovering around 70 degrees. Rainfall will be limited and confined mainly to windward and mauka zones during this time. Today's inversion is observed around 8kft with only minor day to day fluctuations expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov