Hilo

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 49 to 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to 59 to 65 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 73 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 73 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Puna

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 49 to 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to 59 to 65 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 53 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 62 to 67 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 53 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A drier and more stable trade wind pattern is expected through the weekend and into at least the middle of next week. Showers should be mostly focused along windward and mauka locations through the period. Nights will be cool in sheltered areas this weekend.

Short term update

No changes were made. Previous forecast remains on track.

Prev discussion

Light trade wind showers were detected by radar this afternoon along most windward coasts, but measurable rainfall has been limited. Satellite showed plenty of clouds along windward and mauka areas, and along the Kona coast. Winds were brisk, averaging 10-20 mph with gusts 20-35 mph.
We are forecast to remain in a trade wind pattern for the foreseeable future…at least for the next 7 days and likely longer. Wind speeds will weaken slightly tomorrow and Friday, then strengthen Saturday into Sunday as a weak cold front moves through. This front will bring another shot of dry air to the region. Dewpoints Friday through Monday should get into the mid 50s at times, allowing for cool nights for most areas. Another plus from the dry air will be enhanced evaporation, helping to eliminate standing water from all the recent flooding and perhaps aid cleanup.

Aviation

Mostly dry and breezy northeast trade wind conditions will prevail across the island chain over the next 24 h. As a result, AIRMET Tango continues for low-level turbulence across leeward areas of all islands. Brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in passing showers, mainly for windward sites.

Marine

A low pressure system east-northeast of the islands and a high pressure system to the far north-northwest of the Hawaii region will keep northeasterly trade winds in the forecast through the week. A scatterometer pass this afternoon showed more extensive small craft winds through the Kaiwi and Kauai Channels, which has prompted an expansion of the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) which remains in effect through early Thursday morning. Winds will briefly ease on Thursday and Friday, likely falling below SCA thresholds. High pressure drops south from the Bering Sea through this weekend, leading to a strengthening pressure gradient and stronger trade winds through and north of the Hawaiian Islands. Fresh to strong trade winds bring a return of SCA conditions from Saturday into the first half of next week.
The forerunners of a small northwest swell have reached the northwest buoys and will arrive along the north shores tonight. The medium period swell is expected to peak around 3 feet on Thursday before gradually declining through the weekend. For east facing shores, short period wind wave energy from northeasterly trade winds will hold into the weekend. Strengthening northeasterly winds this weekend and a swath of gales associated with a low around one thousand miles northeast of the islands will lead to the potential for high surf advisories along north and east facing shores from Sunday into early next week.
For south facing shores, small background energy pulses will bring surf heights back above flat conditions Thursday evening into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov