Hilo

Rest Of Tonight: Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Rest Of Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Haze. Lows around 71 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Rest Of Tonight: Occasional showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 66 to 74 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Rest Of Tonight: Occasional showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 66 to 74 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Rest Of Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Puna

Rest Of Tonight: Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Wednesday: Cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Rest Of Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 52 to 57 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 57 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A weather pattern featuring light winds, mostly cloudy skies, and scattered to numerous showers will continue through the middle part of the week, with the greatest moisture residing over portions of Maui County and the Big Island. The weather will once again become more active during the latter part of the week as a new low develops, bringing renewed chances for heavy rain and moderate kona winds. Given the high soil saturation from the recent kona storm, even moderate rainfall rates could pose a risk for rapid runoff and flooding, especially from Friday into the weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 840 PM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
This evening, a band of showers with predominately light to moderate rain rates is seen on radar and satellite imagery moving across portions of east Maui and the Big Island. These showers are associated with a low-level trough that is moving through this evening. As the trough moves farther away from Maui, expect improving conditions there, though latest hi-res guidance depicts lingering showers and low clouds over much of the Big Island throughout the rest of the night and into early Wednesday morning. The afternoon 00z sounding at Hilo also showed some instability over the western end of the state, which was realized in the form of a few isolated thunderstorms near the Hilo area and in the Big Island windward coastal waters this evening. Elsewhere, drier conditions are observed this evening from Kauai to Molokai, where rain gauge networks show very little rain has fallen over the past several hours. The forecast has undergone a significant update this evening to bring shower chances, QPF, and winds closer in line with the latest observations and short-term model guidance.
As the previous discussion mentioned, the state continues to reside beneath a large upper-level troughing pattern, which continues to transport moisture-rich air into the region. Precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches continue to reside over the islands, as seen on CIMSS Precipitable Water imagery, as well as in the afternoon upper air sounding at Hilo. Despite the rich moisture in the region with scattered to numerous scattered showers possible, the middle of the week will still likely be the driest portion of the forecast, ahead of the next low pressure system forming nearby. Winds will be relatively light and variable through Wednesday night.
By the latter part of this week, the upper-level winds will become stronger and a trough will deepen into a low just west of the state. Once again, a rich plume of deep tropical moisture will be drawn over the islands, especially the eastern half of the state over Maui County and the Big Island, and will mark the return of south to southwesterly surface flow (kona winds). As a result, shower chances will increase significantly again beginning for some areas on Thursday and lasting into the weekend, including the potential for heavy rain and flooding. The latest model guidance continues to support an additional several inches of rainfall possible over portions of the state during this period. While this next system is not anticipated to be as intense as the recent kona storm event, it is important to note that it will impact an already highly saturated environment.
Given the antecedent conditions, including elevated streams and saturated soils, even moderate rainfall rates may quickly lead to runoff issues. The threat for flash flooding will become elevated statewide by Friday, with the potential for more significant impacts persisting through the weekend. We will continue to refine the forecast over the next couple of days as details become more clear.

Aviation

Issued at 840 PM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
A low level trough passing through Maui and the Big Island this evening will continue to drift eastward away from Maui over the next few hours. Weather conditions will improve over Maui as this trough brings more rain and low ceilings into the Big Island tonight. Expect continued MVFR conditions over Kona and Hilo airports through the morning hours. Lanai Airport may also see MVFR to IFR conditions as these saturated conditions can produce areas of fog over the island through the early morning hours.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over Molokai, Lanai, Maui, and the Big Island at or above 015. No other AIRMETS are currently in effect.
Light icing lingers in clouds with the freezing level around 140.

Marine

Issued at 840 PM HST Tue Mar 17 2026
Light and variable winds prevail through midweek, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes near the coasts. A ridge building to the north of the state will gradually veer to the south by Thursday into the weekend. By this weekend, a weak low approaching from the west traverses across the state and begins to lift north on Saturday, which appears likely to maintain light to moderate southerly winds for the area.
A High Surf Advisory is in effect for north facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Maui through tonight as the north- northwest swell peaks tonight. Surf will gradually decline into Friday as the swell shifts out of the north and north-northeast through Friday. A new small to moderate long period west- northwest swell is expected to arrive Saturday and hold through early next week.
Surf along south shores has trended up today as a fresh long period south swell is expected to peak Wednesday then gradually ease into the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain well below average due to the lack of trades locally and upstream. The exception will be for east facing shores exposed to north- northeast swells expected later this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for north facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov