Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 44 to 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 67 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 67 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 46 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 63 to 69 above 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to 47 to 52 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Winds will lighten up as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes expected Tuesday and Wednesday with the front arriving Wednesday night and dissipating around Maui County Thursday night. Cool north winds briefly follow, then swing around to the south as the next system approaches over the weekend.

Discussion

A 1027 mb surface high is centered far northeast of the state driving moderate trade winds across the area. Mostly sunny skies prevail this afternoon with a few leeward cloud build ups in some of the more sheltered locations from the trade winds where localized sea breezes have set up. Expect a few windward showers overnight and Tuesday morning as winds taper off due to an approaching front from the northwest. Afternoon sea breezes will set up over all islands on Tuesday as the ridge backs off and Hawaii becomes more under the influence of the front. Land breezes will clear skies Tuesday night followed by a repeat for Wednesday.
The front will be a thin band of clouds and showers will weaken as it reaches Kauai Wednesday night, Oahu Thursday and then dissipate over Maui County Thursday night. Moderate to breezy cool northerly winds will blow in as the front passes through Maui County. The band will diminish and lift northward as high pressure builds in over the state.
Winds will lighten again as the next front approaches from the west Friday and Saturday. The latest long range model guidance shows large inconsistencies on when or if this frontal cloud band will bring another round of showers to the state beginning late Saturday night into early next week.

Aviation

VFR conditions will prevail across most sites tonight into Tuesday, with some isolated showers at times in windward areas. Light winds will likely allow sea breezes to form late morning Tuesday, which would persist through sunset (05z).
AIRMET Tango is in effect from Maui to Big Island for upper level turb but this will decrease tonight.

Marine

A weak surface ridge will remain north of the main Hawaii Islands this evening, producing gentle to moderate easterly winds. Winds will decrease and veer southeasterly on Tuesday, then southwesterly on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. This front is expected to move across the western Hawaiian islands late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing moderate to fresh north to northwesterly winds in its wake. Then winds will become light and variable on Friday as the front dissipates over the central Hawaiian islands.
The current medium-period north-northwest (340-350 degree) swell will continue to slowly fade this evening, maintaining below average levels for this time of year. The first of two long to medium period overlapping northwest (310-320 degree) swell pulses started trickling in earlier this afternoon, and will gradually build surf along north and west facing shores into Tuesday. The following bigger pulse will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday, further boosting surf heights and possibly reaching marginal High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels by Wednesday. Near-average surf heights will generally hold into Thursday and decline heading into the weekend.
Choppy east shore surf will remain small and decline for the next few days as trades ease. Expect minimal background surf for south facing shores, with only a minor south-southwest pulse expected Wednesday into Thursday, keeping south shore surf heights just above flat levels.

Fire weather

Conditions remain below critical fire thresholds through the week as winds remain light and RH elevated. Temperature inversion heights over Maui and the Big Island will range from 5,500 to 6,500 feet through Tuesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov