Hilo

Tonight: Cloudy. Occasional showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 59 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Cloudy and breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Cloudy. Occasional showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 59 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to 52 to 57 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to 52 to 57 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy trade will continue to push deep tropical moisture over the state tonight. Moderate to locally heavy rain remains possible along windward and mauka areas of Maui County and the Big Island. Heavy rain chances diminish late tonight, but breezy and showery trades will persist through Thursday. Mid level drying will limit clouds and showers Friday into early next week. Easing trade winds over the weekend could allow for more of a hybrid land/sea breeze pattern over the weekend. Drier moderate trades should return Sunday.

Discussion

Satellite imagery continues to show thick mid and high clouds streaming over the eastern end of the state this afternoon. Radar imagery also shows scattered moderate showers over mainly windward and mauka areas of all islands, with locally heavy showers moving into windward areas of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Rainfall totals the last 6 to 12 hours across these areas have ranged from 0.25 inches on the low end to over 2 inches at Kulaimano on the Big Island and West Wailuaiki on Maui. High resolution guidance continues to show this moisture band being pushed westward overnight by the trades. The main chance of locally heavy rainfall remains along windward and mauka areas of Maui County and the Big Island as PWATs remain close to 2 inches, with the threat diminishing overnight as the air mass starts to stabilize and dry out. Some of these showers may continue to produce some nuisance flooding tonight, but overall threat is minimal. As for the rest of the state, scattered light to moderate showers will remain focused along the windward and mauka areas under breezy trades.
The Big Island summits remained above freezing this afternoon, with minimal rain accumulations. However, guidance continues to show temperatures falling to near or below freezing tonight as the moist air mass lingers over the area. Therefore, any precipitation that fall across the summits tonight will be a wintry mix of rain and snow showers tonight, with a slight chance of light freezing rain possible. The current Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until noon on Thursday. Conditions should quickly clear by late Thursday morning as temperatures climb above freezing.
The strong surface high passing north will maintain breezy trade winds into Thursday. Guidance continues to show a band of low level clouds and showers moving across the area on Thursday keeping a rather cloudy and wet trade wind pattern in place.
Trade winds are expected to ease Friday into the weekend as a front approaches the state from the far northwest. Mid level drying should limit clouds and showers. A few high clouds may remain as an upper level short wave trough passes north of the state Friday.
A hybrid trade wind and sea breeze pattern could develop Saturday as winds relax allowing for clouds and showers to develop along leeward and interior areas and low level moisture from the dissipating front moves over the state. However, cloud heights and showers will continue to be limited due to dry mid levels. The greatest chance of showers will be around Big Island where lingering moisture will be the deepest.
Drier and more stable conditions will fill in Sunday into early next week as mid to upper level ridging builds over the state and moderate trades return.

Aviation

Conditions improve early in the forecast period as the back edge of deeper moisture embedded within the trades advances quickly through the Big Island and Maui. AIRMET Sierra remains in place for now but can likely be dropped as the evening progresses. Elsewhere, a more typical trade wind pattern prevails with a typical distribution of lighter and less organized showers windward and mauka. Anticipate emerging VFR beneath a canopy of high clouds at all windward locales by the predawn hours Thursday.
AIRMET Tango in effect for lee turb.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration in effect for Windward Maui through Big Island.

Marine

Strong trade winds will continue through Thursday, then trend down through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is out through Thursday for contributions from both winds and seas. With the swells and winds expected to taper off Thursday night and Friday, the SCA will likely be paired back during this period, and then dropping all together this weekend. East shore surf will decline as trades weaken over and upstream of the islands.
An overlapping north and northwest swell will bring advisory conditions to north and west facing shores today through midday Thursday. Most of the focus of the north swell will be directed towards Niihau and Kauai. A High Surf Advisory has been posted for Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and Molokai through noon Thursday with both swells falling through the afternoon. For south shores, tiny background south swell energy will persist. Another northwest swell will build north and west shores to advisory level surf Saturday.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions not expected through the forecast period. Periods of locally heavy rain remain possible over Maui County and the Big Island through tonight. Breezy to locally windy trades continue into Thursday, then ease below critical thresholds heading into the weekend. Lingering moisture will keep relative humidity above critical thresholds.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until noon HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov