Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 51 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 52 to 59 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 75 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 51 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 52 to 59 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 54 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 91 near the shore to 67 to 74 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 76 near the shore to 52 to 57 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Locally breezy trades deliver clouds and showers windward and mauka into next week.

Discussion

Diurnally-driven interior showers over Kauai and Oahu will dissipate with the loss of heating this evening. Strong 597dm ridging anchored just west of the International Dateline builds east through the latter half of the week allowing the trade wind belt to rebound northward and strengthen slightly as typical mid- level stability returns. This in turn favors a return to locally breezy trades which will deliver periodic batches of clouds and showers windward and mauka through the forecast period. Prospects for meaningful rainfall remain limited during this time largely owing to a lack of upstream moisture.

Aviation

An area of enhanced moisture over the western half of the state has resulted in lower clouds, showers, and periods of MVFR over mainly Kauai and windward Oahu this afternoon. This prompted the expansion of AIRMET Sierra for mountian obscuration to these areas, with conditions continuing into this evening. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions across the rest of the state tonight and Thursday with moderate to breezy trades keeping clouds and showers over mainly windward and mauka areas.

Marine

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko continue to track northwest this afternoon as it weakens just north of the coastal waters. As this occurs, moderate to locally fresh east to southeast trade winds have begun filling in from east to west across the island chain today. By Thursday, high pressure will build north of the coastal waters, marking a return of moderate to locally fresh trade winds. By Friday, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed once again for the typically windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island as locally breezy trades return.
Any lingering easterly swell generated from Kiko will fade tonight, with surf along east-facing shores returning to the more typical trade wind-generated energy on Thursday as moderate to fresh trades fill back into the region.
Surf along south facing shores will remain near or just below the September average for the next few days. A reinforcing south- southwest swell peaked today and will slowly decline through Thursday. Another small bump from the south is possible on Friday. Additionally, multiple small pules of northwest to north- northwest swell energy will generate small surf along north facing beaches throughout the rest of this week and into the weekend.

Fire weather

The return of locally breezy trades will lower humidity to typical values during the remainder of the forecast period. Showers remain rather limited and focused windward and mauka.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov