Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 71 to 77 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 53 to 60 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to 54 to 62 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect moderate to breezy trade winds through the forecast period as high pressure lingers north of the main Hawaiian Islands. A trade wind distribution of clouds and showers will prevail, with both favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. Total rainfall will be light.

Discussion

A strong surface high persists far north northeast of the islands, driving moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters this afternoon. Satellite loop shows scattered to patchy broken low clouds across windward and mauka sections of the smaller islands. Broken low clouds cover windward shores and lower slopes on the Big Island. Radar shows isolated to scattered showers moving across windward areas, with some of these showers reaching leeward areas.
Models show high pressure will remain north of the state through the coming week, keeping moderate to locally breezy trade winds blowing across local waters. Expect only minor variations in trade wind strength from day to day. Typical trade wind weather will prevail, with bands of showers embedded within trade wind flow periodically moving through the islands. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. Leeward areas may get wet as well from time to time. Total rainfall will be light.

Aviation

Locally breezy trades will deliver periodic low clouds and brief showers to windward and mauka areas through the forecast period. Pockets of MVFR will be possible but VFR is forecast to prevail.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

High pressure north-northeast of the state will drift southwest into Monday producing moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through early Tuesday. Winds may weaken slightly around the middle of the week as a weak low-level trough moves over the state from the east. Otherwise, moderate to locally strong trades are expected to persist through much of next week as the high lingers north of the state.
A 2 to 3 foot south swell appears to be lingering at the nearshore buoys in the 13-15 second range. As a result, south shore surf will likely remain slightly elevated through tonight, before gradually declining Monday. The next small, long-period south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and peak Wednesday night into Thursday. This swell will produce another small boost in surf along south facing shores before declining through the rest of the week.
A tiny pulse from the north-northwest will fade today with nearly flat conditions returning Monday and Tuesday. Another small north- northwest pulse is possible Wednesday through the second half of the week, producing tiny surf along north facing shores.
Near shore buoys are showing an uptick in 8-10 second period energy out of the east overnight. This uptick is partly due to trades increasing both upstream and locally and possibly from small pulses of east swell from former Tropical Cyclone Emilia. Choppy east shore surf can be expected through much of the week as trades persist.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov