Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 71 to 77 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to 53 to 60 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light east to southeast winds will linger into tonight, which supports the land and sea breeze regime with humid conditions continuing. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas, except over interior and leeward locations through the afternoon and evening hours where sea breezes form. A return of breezy easterly trade wind conditions is anticipated Thursday through the weekend.

Discussion

Near-term guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the weakness in the ridge holding north of the area into tonight as a front passes far to the north. This has resulted in a light east to southeast low-level flow for Hawaii that supports the land and sea breeze regime continuing. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas overnight through the morning hours, then over interior and mauka locations through the afternoon and early evening periods where sea breezes form. This combined with a sufficient amount of low-level moisture approaching and moving through and an upper trough lingering over the region could trigger spotty heavy afternoon showers today, and a thunderstorm or two over the slopes of the Big Island can't be ruled out.
Rising upper heights combined with drier air filling in from east to west will lead to more stable conditions late Thursday through the upcoming weekend. The surface ridge will retreat northward and strengthen and a return of breezy trade wind conditions is anticipated beginning Thursday.

Aviation

A weak ridge north of the islands will keep light to moderate trade winds in place through tonight, with localized land and sea breezes common in sheltered leeward areas. Some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in windward areas through mid morning, with greater coverage of MVFR conditions expected this afternoon over interior and leeward sections of the islands.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A weak east to west oriented surface ridge appears to be about 250 nm north of the Lihue early this morning. The close proximity of this feature to the islands will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds through early Thursday morning. This relatively light wind regime will likely allow the development of local afternoon sea breezes and nighttime land breezes. Localized terrain-induced wind acceleration may produce pockets of choppy sea conditions near some coasts during the afternoon hours. The surface ridge is expected to build, and shift to the north starting Thursday, which will likely cause the trade winds to strengthen. As a result, the current forecast has Small Craft Advisory conditions for the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island from Thursday through this weekend.
Small background south and southeast swells are expected to produce below typical summertime surf heights along along south facing shores into Friday. Forerunners from a new, long-period south swell are expected to arrive late Friday night. This swell will likely produce near, to slightly above normal surf along south facing shores from this weekend into early next week. Surf will remain small along east facing shores during the next few days due to the weak trade winds. As the trade winds strengthen later this week, there may be a return to modest, choppy surf along east facing shores from this weekend into early next week. Expect nearly flat conditions to persist along north facing shores through tonight. Small, short-period north-northwest swells starting Thursday may provide a slight boost in surf heights along exposed north facing shores through this weekend. The forecast guidance appears to show a slightly larger and longer period northwest swell may arrive early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov