Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 76 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 76 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kona

Today: Sunny in the morning, then cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 53 to 59 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 57 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 57 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 76 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 76 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 78 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 53 to 60 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 78 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep light to moderate trade winds in the forecast through most of next week. Lighter wind speeds will allow afternoon sea breezes to develop over terrain sheltered western slopes of each island. A very stable air mass will keep cloud cover to a minimum with limited shower activity. Clouds and showers will develop over windward areas, mountains and island interior sections each day with mostly isolated to scattered shower coverage.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning looks fairly stable with a weak band of more unstable clouds moving into the east slopes of Big Island and Maui. Additional clouds and showers over the eastern sections of both islands will continue through the morning hours as this band slowly drifts through the eastern islands. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered shower coverage across the rest of the state.
A subtropical ridge remains in place just north of the state strong subsidence (downward vertical motions) aloft will keep the air mass dry and stable across the region through much of next week. Trade wind temperature inversion heights created by this subsidence will range from around 4,000 to 6,000 feet elevation over the next seven days. These low inversion heights serve as a thermal cap on vertical cloud buildups and a limit to rainfall coverage.
Not much change to the weather pattern through the upcoming work week. Light to moderate large scale trade winds will allow clouds to develop over windward and mountain areas. However, trade winds will be weak enough for terrain sheltered sea breezes developing along western slopes of each island each day, sea breezes over leeward areas will also develop on the lighter wind days, clouds in a sea breeze regime will build over island interior sections. That said, the stable air mass will severely limit the cloud heights and shower potential over all islands. The best chances for passing showers will occur over the eastern slopes of the Big Island through the end of next week.

Aviation

Light to moderate easterly trades will continue through the weekend, with clouds and a few showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Although some leeward cloud development will occur through the afternoon hours where sea breezes form, the dry conditions will limit rainfall chances.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect through the morning hours today for mountain obscuration over windward sections of the Big Island. Conditions will improve through the late morning and afternoon hours.

Marine

A ridge north of the islands is gradually moving south and will cause trade winds to weaken into the light to moderate range across local Hawaiian waters through early next week. Trade winds will increase thereafter as the ridge moves back north. Aside from localized diurnal changes in wind speeds, conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels in all zones through the weekend.
Long-period south swell will gradually subside through today, but modest reinforcements from the southern hemisphere will maintain surf heights near the seasonal average along south facing shores into early next week. A couple of small swells from the northwest will provide a slight bump to surf heights along north facing shores through the weekend. Weak trade winds will deliver small short-period wind waves to east facing shores through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov