Hilo

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 70. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: Scattered showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Scattered showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waimea

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a northeast wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kohala

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 59. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Windy, with an east wind 21 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Puna

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 78. North northwest wind 7 to 11 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 67. North northeast wind 6 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 78. North northwest wind 6 to 14 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East southeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. North northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east southeast in the evening.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 21 mph becoming light east northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through midweek, then strengthen Thursday through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, especially overnight through the morning periods. Areas of tropical moisture moving through from east to west combined with an upper trough nearby to the northwest may enhance shower coverage and intensity periodically. As the trades increase later in the week, some of these showers may carry over into our dry leeward areas. A return of drier trade wind conditions is anticipated this weekend.

Discussion

Guidance remains persistent and continues to advertise plenty of tropical moisture moving through the islands from east to west through the second half of the week. This moisture combined with an upper trough lurking nearby to the northwest will keep the rainfall chances up, especially for the typical windward and mauka locations each day. Some of the showers may become locally heavy at times, and could spill over into our dry leeward areas later in the week when the trades become locally windy.
For the upcoming weekend, rising upper heights and drier trade wind conditions will limit rainfall chances and accumulations, even for windward areas.

Aviation

Moderate to occasionally breezy east northeasterly trades will push showers across windward coasts and slopes through the forecast period, especially along northeast portions of the Big Island. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility will likely accompany this activity. Isolated showers are expected elsewhere. Expect VFR to dominate at most terminals.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for areas below 8000 feet over and immediately south thru west of mountains for tempo moderate turbulence.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for north thru east sections of the Big Island and Maui above 2000 feet for mountain obscuration from clouds and showers and is likely to continue through today.

Marine

A high pressure system passing by north of the region will keep fresh to locally strong trade winds in the forecast through Wednesday, then wind speeds increase from Thursday into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will remain in effect for the typically windier waters and channels near Maui County and the Big Island through Wednesday. This SCA may expand in coverage on Thursday and Friday.
Moderate choppy surf along east facing shores will slowly trend a bit lower through Wednesday due to a surface ridge decreasing the fetch length of the trade winds upstream of the Hawaiian Islands. A slight increase in the trade wind swell and surf along east facing shores will develop on Thursday and Friday as a high pressure system builds in north to northeast of the region.
A mix of minor south and southeast swells will keep small surf along exposed south shores into the weekend.
A small west-northwest swell, from tropical cyclone activity in the NW Pacific, may arrive along some exposed west and north facing shores starting on Thursday or Friday. A slight increase in surf heights along north and west facing shores into the 1 to 3 foot range is possible.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov