Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 60 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to 52 to 58 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 59 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 56 to 66 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 59 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 56 to 66 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 60 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to 54 to 59 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 85 to 91 near the shore to around 70 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to 52 to 59 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure system drifting slowly from west to east far north of the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into the middle of next week. Brief pulses of enhanced showers are forecast with three passing easterly waves favoring the windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours starting Friday night and lingering into Tuesday morning.

Short term update

A high pressure system drifting slowly from west to east far north of the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into the middle of next week.
Three low level easterly waves will ride into the islands on the strengthening trade winds bringing pulses of higher shower coverage favoring Friday night, then late Saturday, and the last one unfolding from Sunday through Monday. The last of these easterly short wave troughs might be the strongest of the three with pulses of showers extending over the typically drier leeward areas at times. Forecasting rainfall amounts with these waves is always challenging due to variations in arrival timing and their intensity relative to each island.
Overall the afternoon forecast grids look reasonable. No evening updates.

Previous discussion

Issued at 359 PM HST Wed Oct 14 2026 Radar and satellite show scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies across the Puna and Ka'u districts of the Big Island this afternoon. Skies were partly to mostly sunny with isolated showers over eastern Maui, and mostly sunny elsewhere. Winds were generally out of the east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph, except for locations downwind of terrain, where light west winds were common.
Forecast models are in good agreement that a series of surface high pressure systems will move west-to-east across the northern Pacific, giving us an extended period of trade winds. By early next week, surface troughing may develop as a strong upper level ridge develops to our north. This troughing could lead to an increase in showers from late in the weekend into early next week, especially on the eastern end of the state. Confidence is not high at this time, as models are not in agreement on how much moisture may move into the region. Otherwise, expect a typical trade wind regime, with mainly windward and mauka showers, most numerous at night.

Aviation

Moderate trades will strengthen to breezy levels Thursday as a ridge builds north of the islands. An area of moisture moving east to west across the state will bring clouds and showers to the windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR ceilings may occur within better organized showers, but mostly VFR conditions should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra has been issued for windward areas of the Big Island as the above mentioned area of clouds and showers move in. Maui may need to added overnight as the clouds and showers spread to this AIRMET later this evening.

Marine

Surface high pressure far northwest of the islands will move closer tonight and Thursday, then build as it moves to the north then northeast of Hawaii on Friday. As a result, trade winds will gradually increase to fresh to locally strong levels over the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui starting Thursday. A stronger surface high will pass far north of the islands late Saturday and Sunday, likely increasing trade winds and possibly necessitating an expansion of the SCA to additional waters. Elevated trade winds will persist into early next week.
The current northwest swell will continue a gradual decline through Thursday, followed by a moderate north-northwest swell Friday through the weekend. The current swell has lowered to around 4 ft at 12 seconds this evening and will slowly fall through Thursday. The next swell will be from the north-northwest and will arrive Friday. Surf along north and west facing shores should top out around seasonal average during the peak of the swell Friday afternoon and Saturday, then slowly decline late Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly and a smaller overlapping northwest swell arrives. Both swells will fade early next week.
Surf along south facing shores will briefly fall near or just below seasonal average as the current south swell continues a slow decline tonight. A new long-periond south swell will build Thursday and may push south shore surf back above seasonal average through Friday. The swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursday and will steadily increase Friday as trade winds strengthen over the region. Rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Saturday through early next week.

Fire weather

Issued at 359 PM HST Wed Oct 14 2026 Moderate trade winds will strengthen to breezy levels Thursday. Dry air will keep RH levels at near-critical values each afternoon for parts of the state Friday through Sunday. RH values are expected to increase from Monday through the middle of next week. Winds will remain below critical thresholds. Inversion heights today should range from about 5,000 to 6,000 ft through Thursday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM HST Saturday for the typical windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov