Hilo

Tonight: Breezy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to around 62 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday Night: Cloudy and breezy. Occasional showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 75 near the shore to 57 to 62 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the late evening and overnight. Lows 71 to 77 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms until late afternoon, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 86 to 92 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph increasing to 60 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 78 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Gusts up to 60 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. Cloudy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the evening, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 68 to 75 near the shore to 62 to 70 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 45 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Saturday: Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 63 to 84. East winds 15 to 45 mph with gusts to 80 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 75 near the shore to 61 to 69 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 45 mph decreasing to up to 45 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 80 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. Cloudy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the evening, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 68 to 75 near the shore to 62 to 70 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 45 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Saturday: Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 63 to 84. East winds 15 to 45 mph with gusts to 80 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 75 near the shore to 61 to 69 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 45 mph decreasing to up to 45 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 80 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 78 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 45 mph with gusts to 70 mph decreasing to up to 45 mph with gusts to 80 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the morning, then occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 50 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 50 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 80 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 77 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 35 to 60 mph with gusts to 90 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Breezy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 68 to 76 near the shore to around 62 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday Night: Cloudy and breezy. Occasional showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 75 near the shore to 57 to 62 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. Cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the late evening and overnight. Lows 73 to 78 near the shore to 59 to 64 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 55 mph with gusts to 85 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 84 to 91 near the shore to around 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 55 mph with gusts to 85 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 72 to 78 near the shore to 57 to 63 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 55 mph with gusts to 90 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Hurricane Nolo continues to slowly move to the north towards the Big Island, and is expected to make a turn to the west tonight. Moisture on the north side of Nolo will interact with the terrain of the Big Island and Maui, and could lead to significant flash flooding, particularly on the windward and southeast portions of the Big Island. Localized strong and gust winds are possible statewide, with the highest winds expected on the Big Island due to the proximity to Nolo.

Discussion

High-level cloudiness with light showers prevailed across the Big Island this afternoon as Hurricane Nolo continues to move slowly north-northeast. The rest of the islands remained relatively quiet, aside from breeze conditions throughout the day.
Latest radar imagery shows rainbands associated with Nolo inching closer to the Big Island. These bands are expected to move through tonight into Saturday morning, producing periods of heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.
The latest National Hurricane Center track still indicates Nolo will make its closest approach late tonight before turning westward. Although forecast precipitation amounts for the state have been adjusted slightly downward, rainfall totals remain high enough to cause life-threatreninh flooding,especially across the Big Island. Other impacts are summarized in the marine and aviation sections.
Impacts from Nolo will worsen through tomorrow morning and persist through Saturday night. A slow improvement in weather conditions is expected on Sunday as Nolo moves away from the area.
By the middle of next week, troughing will draw Nolo north or northeastward to the west of Kauai. Toward the end of next week, light south-to-southeast wind flow is expected to prevail as the pressure gradient over the state weakens substantially.

Aviation

Gusty trade winds will continue across most of the islands into the weekend, with gusts peaking between 25 to 35 knots. Gusts up to 40 knots are possible at the windiest sites. For the western islands, occasional trade showers are likely to continue across windward and mauka areas, while heavier rain remains concentrated from Molokai through the Big Island as Hurricane Nolo passes south of the state. The highest potential for moderate to heavy rain remains across the Big Island, with reductions in ceilings and visibilities likely as shower activity becomes more frequent. Observations from Hilo this afternoon already show prolonged and widespread IFR conditions over eastern Big Island, and periods of IFR to LIFR conditions remain possible through Saturday. Thunderstorm chances remain low.
AIRMET Sierra has been issued for IFR conditions across eastern Big Island, and will likely remain in effect through tonight. Additionally, AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for eastern Maui, and this will likely be needed through the night as well.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain due to breezy trade winds. Expect this to continue through the forecast period. It is possible that an AIRMET for sustained 30 kt winds will be needed for the Big Island by Saturday as Nolo passes to the south.
TC SIGMET Oscar series covers Hurricane Nolo, and interests should continue to monitor for updates to this SIGMET.

Marine

Hurricane Warnings around the Big Island and Tropical Storm Warnings around Maui County remain in effect as Hurricane Nolo inches northward. A Gale Watch is in effect for the remaining waters through Sunday. Nolo is still forecast to turn west well before reaching the Big Island or adjacent nearshore waters, but strong winds and high seas can nonetheless be expected well away from the storm itself.
South to southeast fresh swell emanating from Nolo will spread west across the southern nearshore waters as the system tracks west through early next week. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for E and SE facing shores of the Big Island, Maui, and Molokai remains in effect and has been extended through Sunday. In addition, an HSA is now in effect for Kauai, Oahu, and Niihau beginning tonight due to strengthening trades. A small, long period NW swell fills in this weekend in maintenance of elevated surf along exposed shorelines into early next week.

Fire weather

Issued at 437 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026
Winds will steadily increase as Hurricane Nolo moves closer. Very strong winds are possible on the Big Island, though heavy rainfall will likely mitigate fire danger over most areas. From Kauai to Maui County, rainfall over the last month has led to some improvement in fuels, but the gusty trade winds will produce moderate fire weather conditions over drier leeward areas through the weekend. Drier conditions are expected early next week, although winds will diminish substantially as pressure gradient weakens.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM HST Sunday for Central Oahu, East Honolulu, Ewa Plain, Honolulu Metro, Kauai East, Kauai Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, Koolau Leeward, Koolau Windward, Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Waianae Coast, Waianae Mountains.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai East, Kauai South, Koolau Windward, Olomana.
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Big Island East, Big Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island Summits, Haleakala Summit, Kahoolawe, Kipahulu, Kohala, Kona, Lanai Leeward, Lanai Mauka, Lanai South, Lanai Windward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, Molokai Leeward South, Molokai North, Molokai Southeast, Molokai West, Molokai Windward, South Haleakala, South Maui/Upcountry, Windward Haleakala.
Tropical Storm Watch for Haleakala Summit, Kahoolawe, Kipahulu, Lanai Leeward, Lanai Mauka, Lanai South, Lanai Windward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, Molokai Leeward South, Molokai North, Molokai Southeast, Molokai West, Molokai Windward, South Haleakala, South Maui/Upcountry, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East, Big Island North, Big Island Southeast, Kipahulu, Maui Windward West, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Windward, South Haleakala, Windward Haleakala.
Hurricane Watch for Big Island East, Big Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island Summits, Kohala, Kona.
Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island East, Big Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island Summits, Kohala, Kona.
Tropical Storm Watch for Kaiwi Channel, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.
Hurricane Watch for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov