Moke forecast to reach peak intensity soon; storm center should pass couple of hundred miles south of Big Island on Sunday

Updated 12:27 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 22

Tropical Storm Moke — if it hasn’t already — likely will reach its peak intensity soon.

Central Pacific Hurricane forecasters reported in their 11 a.m. advisory Saturday that dry air is beginning to wrap into the southern portion of the storm’s circulation. That continued entrainment of stable air and an increase in wind shear should cause Moke to begin weakening Sunday, continuing to do so into next week.

The tropical storm remained in a generally steady state throughout this morning. Little change in strength is expected today.

Moke continues to move west-northwest at about 12 mph. That general motion is expected to persist during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge continues to strengthen to the storm’s north.

The track should bring the storm’s center roughly a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island on Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands after that.

It also is expected to remain compact, so forecasters have high confidence that no tropical storm watches or warnings remain necessary for the state.

However, Moke is still forecast to be close enough to produce gusty winds in portions of the islands, especially in areas of high terrain, late tonight through early next week. In addition, most of associated moisture is expected to be on the north side of the cyclone, so areas of heavy rain also continue to be forecast during the next few days.

The tropical storm was about 425 miles southeast of Hilo as of the 11 a.m. update from the hurricane center, blowing sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts.

Key messages from the 11 a.m. Saturday update

Rainfall: Moke is still expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, around the Big Island. These rainfall amounts could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for windward and southeast locations of the island, especially in steep terrain and areas that were affected recently by Hurricane Lala.

Those areas include the Kaʻū communities of Nāʻālehu, Pāhala and Waiʻōhinu.

A flood watch will be in effect from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for windward and southeast Big Island.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches of rain are expected in eastern Maui. Moisture drawn northward from the tropical storm will bring up to 1 to 2 inches of rain across western Maui and remainder of the state.

Wind: Gusty winds are expected throughout the Hawaiian Islands beginning late Saturday and continuing Sunday, especially in areas of high terrain.

A wind advisory will be in effect from noon today until 6 p.m. Sunday for north, south and southeast portions of the Big Island as there is a potential for impacts in those areas from strong trade winds enhanced by terrain as Moke creates a tight pressure gradient as it passes to the south.

National Weather Service forecasters in Honolulu expect east to northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph, in these areas. Gusts could even approach high wind warning criteria in the normally windiest locations of the island.

Surf: Swells generated by the storm could produce elevated surf near the state’s exposed east- and south-facing shores through early next week.

“Our county crews remain ready to respond, and we ask our residents to remain vigilant and be prepared for heavy rainfall and gusty winds as Tropical Storm Moke passes us to the south,” said Hawai‘i County Mayor Kimo Alameda in a noon Saturday update from the county. “The ground remains saturated, so be aware it may not take much rain to cause more flooding.”

Alameda acknowledged Big Island residents are fatigued and still recovering from Hurricane Lala, and he thanked everyone for doing their part to keep themselves and their neighbors safe.

Hawai‘i County Civil Defense reminded residents earlier Saturday that all preparations should be completed before nightfall.

Power and communication outages should be anticipated, as well as hazardous road conditions.

Those in flood prone areas, especially those impacted by Hurricane Lala, are advised to prepare for possible additional flooding impacts and consider evacuating the area before storm conditions begin.

Shelters will be open as of 8 p.m. Saturday, with those at Nāʻālehu Elementary School gym and Robert N. Herkes Gym in Pāhala already open and operating with generator power.

Shelter locations:

• Nāʻālehu Elementary School gym, 95-5545 Māmalahoa Highway, Nāʻālehu.
• Robert N. Herkes Gym, 96-1219 Kamani St., Pāhala.
• Pāhoa Senior Center, 15-3016 Kauhale St., Pāhoa
• Keaʻau Armory, 16-512 Volcano Road, Keaʻau.
• Puʻuʻeo Community Center, 145 Wainaku St., Hilo.
• Sgt. Rodney J.T. Yano Memorial Hall, 82-6156 Māmalahoa Highway, Captain Cook.

Anyone who comes to a shelter should bring their own supplies, including food, water, sleeping bags and any necessary medicine. Shelters are pet friendly; however, pets must be kept in a carrier.

Hot showers are available at Robert N. Herkes Gym. Bring your own towels and hygiene products.

Bus service

The following Hele-On bus routes are canceled Sunday:

• Routes 2, 10, 12 and 90.
• Route 75 at 6:15 a.m. (southbound to Kona)
• Route 75 at 3:03 p.m. (northbound to Kapaʻau).

All other fixed route services and trip times are scheduled to operate as regularly scheduled; however, because of the unknown effects of weather conditions, transportation delays, re-routing and cancellations could occur at a moment’s notice.

The Hilo park and ride spot on Kamehameha Avenue will be moved to the Kuawa Park parking lot if Kamehameha Avenue floods.

Sandbags

Sandbags can be requested by contacting Hawaiʻi County Department of Public Works at dpwhwy@hawaiicounty.gov or 808-961-8349. For after-hours requests, contact Civil Defense at 808-935-0031. Sandpile locations can be found online. Bring your own sandbags.

Public Works completed clearing the Nāʻālehu flood channel Friday as part of preparations for Tropical Storm Moke.

Highway 11 will be open to area residents only between the entrance of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and Kaʻū in the event the next lava fountaining episode of the ongoing episodic Kīlauea summit eruption happens during the storm.

Access to Pāhala and Waiʻōhinu/Nāʻālehu via Highway 11 remains limited to local/disaster response only.

General safety information

• Complete storm preparations, have a shelter plan and avoid unnecessary travel by staying off roadways during storm impacts.
• Know the areas prone to flooding, especially near your home, and use extra caution around them. Heavy rain uphill from your location can cause flooding, even if it’s not raining where you are.
• Never try crossing moving water, on foot or in a vehicle: “Turn around, don’t drown.”
• Have a “go bag” ready in case you must evacuate, especially if your home is in an area prone to flooding. It should include food, water, necessary medication, important documents and other necessities for the members of your household (including pets) if you need to leave in a hurry.
• Check the area around your home. Trim tree limbs and secure awnings, umbrellas and other objects that could become airborne and damage your roof or windows. Remove debris that could block drainage and increase the chance of flooding.
• Check in with neighbors, especially those who might have mobility problems, to make sure they have a safe way to evacuate if flooding strikes.

Monitor local radio broadcasts for additional updates and official advisories in your area.

Contact the Civil Defense at 808-935-0031 or visit the Civil Defense website for additional information or with any questions. The site also includes tropical cyclone resources.

Be sure to check the Hawai‘i County Hazard Impact Map for information about impacts and hazards from the storm.

Hawaiian Electric

Hawaiian Electric urges its customers to review their emergency plans, ensure they have supplies on hand and to closely monitor weather updates as Tropical Storm Moke approaches the state.

Preparation and safety tips are available on the Hawaiian Electric website, and detailed tips also can be found in the utility’s Handbook for Emergency Preparedness.

Hawaiian Electric will continue to provide updates as work progresses on Hawaiʻi Island. Click here or download the utility’s mobile app for the latest outage information and estimated time of restoration.

Hawaiian Electric resources for updates and more information:

• Hawaiian Electric website.
• X: @hielectriclight
• Facebook.
• Mobile app: Free download available from The App Store for Apple devices and Google Play for Android devices.

Hawai‘i Department of Transportation preparations

Crews on all islands Friday prepared facilities and worked to remove vegetation from streams and saturated hillsides in preparation for heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Moke.

Debris washed into streams by Lala and all previous storms also was removed at mileposts 50, 51.5, 53.5, 54.5 and 56.5. All bridges along Māmalahoa Highway (Highway 11) in Ka‘ū impacted by Lala were inspected and found structurally sound and safe.

Crews reinspected drainage, trimmed trees to remove potential hazards, secured equipment, tied down or relocated aircraft and topped off emergency power generators at Hilo International and Ellison Onizuka Kona International airports.