Hurricane Fausto Saturday update: Confidence growing in Category 2 hurricane’s track as it continues to move west

Update at 9:30 a.m. July 25: National Weather Service forecasters in Honolulu reported July 25 in a morning briefing that confidence is increasing in the track of Hurricane Fausto, which remains a Category 2 hurricane and moves westward at about 14 mph.

But it’s still not a “sure thing,” and they have low confidence of any impacts to Hawai’i.

The one impact forecasters in Honolulu and at National Weather Service National Hurricane Center in Miami agree on is that dangerous — life-threatening — surf will likely begin to swell into the islands by sometimes July 26, well-ahead of any other impacts and the arrival of the hurricane in the area.

Fausto could bring rain and wind by Tuesday/Wednesday to the islands, but it’s still too early to determine the exact location or magnitude. There’s a 5% to 10% chance of tropical storm force winds reaching the islands — except the Big Island, which has a less than 5% chance.

Windward coastal waters have a 10% to 15% chance of tropical storm force winds.

Hurricane Fausto was about 1,300 miles east of Hilo as of 5 a.m. Saturday, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the storm’s center, and tropical storm force winds extend up to 205 miles.

The storm will continue to move generally westward, with a slight northerly motion during the next several days. Fausto is also near its peak intensity and expected to weaken to a tropical storm before approaching the Hawaiian Islands.

Fausto will run into cooler water and drier air — along with more wind shear — during the next few days, all of which will help to weaken the storm.

Honolulu forecasters reiterated that east shores will likely begin to see dangerous high surf building the night of July 26 into July 27 along east-facing shores.

National Weather Service National Hurricane Center reported earlier Saturday morning that surf generated by Fausto is still expected to begin building Sunday across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as the storm approaches and moves into the area.

“These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” said the latest advisory.

This is the first tropical cyclone of the 2026 Central Pacific Basin hurricane season. Regardless of potential impacts, forecasters in Honolulu said it is crucial that the public prepare.

They said Fausto is a reminder to review and practice emergency plans and offered several preparation pointers:

• Check your emergency kits and fill up on supplies — 14 days of food, water and medication.
• Check in with family and friends: how you will get in contact and where you will go during an emergency or evacuation?
• Know your zone: check if you are in a flood prone area or exposed to strong winds
• Prepare your home: trim trees, clean gutters, seal gaps, bring in loose outdoor items.
• Check insurance policy and have information handy.

A high surf advisory for south-facing shores of the entire state — unrelated to Fausto — also was extended again until 6 a.m. Sunday, with large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet and strong currents continuing to make swimming and other recreational ocean activities along those shores dangerous.

National Weather Service forecasters in Honolulu said the current south-southwest swell that triggered the initial high surf advisory toward the end of this week is on a gradual decline.

However, an overlapping pulse of south-southwest swell is expected to push south shore surf again to advisory levels by midday Saturday through at least tonight — and possibly through Sunday.

Original story posted at 2:42 a.m. July 25: U.S. Coast Guard set Port Heavy Weather Condition Whiskey for all commercial ports throughout Hawaiʻi, effective at 8 p.m. July 24 because of expected gale force winds generated by Hurricane Fausto possible within the next 3 days.

Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it the Hawaiian Islands early next week, National Weather Service National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to be uncertain about its exact track and intensity.

Confidence is high, however, that swells generated by Fausto will reach Hawaiʻi by July 26, well in advance of the storm, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Fausto had weakened slightly by 11 p.m. Friday as it continues its westward trek toward Hawaiʻi.

The hurricane was exhibiting maximum winds of 100 mph and was about 1,305 miles east of Hilo. Hurricane force winds extended up to 45 miles outward from the storm’s center, while tropical storm force winds extended up to 205 miles from its center.

Fausto had sustained winds of 105 mph Friday morning.

The hurricane continues to move west at about 14 mph, which forecasters expect to hold for the next several days.

Surf is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect yet, however, but the public and all other stakeholders in Hawaiʻi should continue to monitor the hurricane’s progress.

Current forecast models brings the center just north of the islands, but a track farther south would result in a greater risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall.

Satellite imagery at 11 p.m. Friday indicated Fausto’s overall structure has changed little during the past several hours. However, intermittent intrusions of mid-level dry air began to erode the deep convection over the northwestern quadrant and eyewall.

Despite these fluctuations and lowered intensity, Fausto continues to maintain a well-defined eye and well-established upper-level outflow.

A strong subtropical ridge is forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto, steering the cyclone generally westward during the next several days. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered through about the next 4 days, with somewhat greater spread developing thereafter as the system passes just north of the main Hawaiian Islands.

Although the current forecast brings Fausto just north of the Hawaiian Islands during the July 28-29 time frame, the islands remain well within the typical day 4 to 5 track error envelope.

The hurricane is expected to remain well-organized through much of July 25 while moving over warm waters. Thereafter, progressively cooler sea surface temperatures, a drier surrounding environment and increasing westerly vertical wind shear by early next week should result in continued weakening.

By the time Fausto approaches the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening tropical storm, with the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the low-level center.

During U.S. Coast Guard Port Heavy Weather Condition Whiskey, port facilities are open to all commercial traffic and all transfer operations can continue, however:

• All pleasure craft shall seek sheltered waters.
• Operators of vessels 200 gross tons and greater should plan to depart port. The ports captain might direct departures to reduce the number of vessels in port.
• Vessels that desire to remain in port must submit a safe mooring plan and receive written permission from the ports captain and Hawaiʻi Department of Transportation Harbors Division.
• Requests should be submitted immediately. Requests received after Port Condition X-Ray might not be considered. Send requests to D14-DG-SH-SecHono-MTSRU@uscg.mil and HawaiiDistrict.heavyweather.request@hawaii.gov.
• Vessels transiting within the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands should seek sheltered waters and anticipate additional restrictions and possible port closures as conditions progress.
• The ports captain can restrict operations of or deny port entry to vessels transporting oil or certain hazardous materials.
• If and when Port Condition Yankee is set because sustained tropical storm force winds of 39 mph are expected within 24 hours, ports are closed to incoming traffic without specific approval from the ports captain.

“We’re keeping an eye on the system and will provide updates as we learn more about its track,” said Hawaiʻi County Mayor Kimo Alameda on Friday. “The storm is also a good reminder to make sure that you and your family are prepared this hurricane season.”

The county reminds residents to take the following preparation steps:

• Make a plan for how to shelter at home or move to safe shelter before a storm arrives.
• Trim vegetation that could be downed by wind and cause damage to the home.
• Clear any debris that could block water from flowing around drainage areas.
• Make sure food, water and medication are stocked for everyone in your household, including pets.
  Prepare for power outages.
• Sign up online for Civil Defense emergency alerts.

Hawai‘i County Department of Water Supply also urges customers to get storm ready as the first hurricane of the 2026 Central Pacific Basin 2026 hurricane season moves toward the state. The department also provided tips to prepare.

With Hurricane Fausto approaching and possibly reaching the islands early next week, Hawaiian Electric urges customers to review emergency plans, ensure they have supplies they need on hand and keep close watch on the storm’s development.

U.S. Coast Guard also advises the public to:

• Stay off the water. The Coast Guard’s search-and-rescue capabilities degrade as storm conditions strengthen. This means help could be delayed. Boaters should heed weather watches, warnings and small craft advisories.
• Secure belongings. Owners of large boats are urged to move their vessels to inland marinas, where they will be less vulnerable to breaking free of their moorings or sustaining damage. Trailerable boats should be pulled from the water and stored in a place not prone to flooding. Those leaving boats in the water are reminded to update their beacon’s registration and secure all devices safely to their vessel prior to a major storm. Ensure life rings, life jackets, and small boats are secured.
• Stay clear of beaches. Wave heights and currents typically increase before a storm makes landfall. Swimmers should stay clear of beaches until local lifeguards and law enforcement officials say the water is safe.
• Stay informed. The public should monitor the progress and strength of the storm through local television, radio and internet. Mariners should monitor VHF-FM Channels 16 and 22A for broadcast notice to mariners and watch for updates via email. Monitor the U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center website for up-to-date port status information.

Contact the Maritime Transportation System Recovery Unit via email at D14-DG-SH-SecHono-MTSRU@uscg.mil or U.S. Coast Guard Sector Honolulu Command Center at 1-800-552 6458 for additional information about port services and closings.

A high surf advisory for south-facing shores of the entire state — unrelated to Fausto — also was extended until 6 p.m. Saturday as a long-period south-southwest swell continues to produce advisory level surf along those shores.

National Weather Service forecasters in Honolulu said the swell was expected to decline overnight Friday into Satuday, but a reinforcing pulse of long-period south-southwest energy is expected to bring surf back to advisory level by Saturday afternoon and possibly continuing through the weekend.

Additional updates will be provided as Fausto continues to spin toward Hawai‘i.