Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 55 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 61 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 55 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 65 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 65 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 55 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 61 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 55 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 53 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 62 to 67 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 53 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain breezy to locally windy trades supporting windward and mauka showers. As the high begins to drift farther east, trades will ease to moderate to breezy levels, persisting through the rest of the week. Some models are hinting at unsettled weather returning to the islands by the weekend, but strengthening trades with periods of windward and mauka showers is looking like the more likely outcome for the weekend into early next week.

Short term update

Issued at 840 PM HST Wed Feb 11 2026
The current forecast remains on track, therefore, no amendments were necessary at this time. Latest observations from the mid- level water vapor suggest much of the state remains under mostly cloudy conditions, however, not much in the way of precipitation with the exception of windward Big Island. This checks out considering the transition easing into to more moderate to locally breezy trades, progged to carry through until at least the weekend, have focused shower activity along windward and mauka areas. Additionally, the Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for the summits of Big Island through tomorrow morning and will be reevaluated with the morning forecast package following the latest trends.

Prev discussion

With strong high pressure positioned to the northeast of the island chain and a trough of low pressure well to the west, breezy to locally windy trade winds will persist through the afternoon. As the high gradually drifts farther east, the pressure gradient will relax slightly, allowing trades to ease to moderate to breezy levels this evening through Friday. This will allow a more typical trade wind pattern to persist through the end of the standard work week, bringing periods of enhanced showers and increased clouds to windward and mauka locations.
Radar and satellite imagery show isolated showers moving into windward and mauka areas this afternoon, with deeper moisture expected to remain focused near the Big Island through this evening. This moisture is expected to remain deep enough to support wintry precipitation at the Big Island summits. Temperatures at the summits, which are slightly above freezing this afternoon, are expected to drop below freezing again this evening, favoring additional snowfall accumulations and the potential for freezing fog. A Winter Weather Advisory has been extended through early Thursday morning to account for these potential continued impacts.
Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week, models continue to advertise a low developing west of the state that eventually becomes absorbed by a larger system to the northwest. There's some deep moisture tied to this setup, but for now, guidance keeps most of it west of the islands. Instead, the more likely outcome is strengthening trade winds across the state, along with a few rounds of enhanced moisture from decayed fronts drifting in from the east, bringing increased shower activity.

Aviation

Breezy trades continue across most of the island chain, with wind speeds expected to gradually decrease over the next couple of days. Light windward showers are also expected under this pattern, especially for Maui and the Big Island, which may lead to localized MVFR conditions.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mtn obsc above 030 for N thru SE sections of Maui and the Big Island through today.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb below 070 for leeward sides of the islands.

Marine

Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce rough marine conditions across the state through next week as another strong high builds far north of the state Friday into the weekend. The current strong to near gale force trade winds will ease slightly by Thursday before picking back up over the weekend. Widespread strong to near gale force trades are expected by Sunday with some of the windier channels such as Alenuihaha Channel approaching gale force. Small Craft Advisory is in effect across all waters due to the strong trade winds with seas in excess of 10 feet for exposed coastal waters.
Strong trade winds will continue to bring advisory level surf to east facing shores through tonight. Latest nearshore buoy observations just started to show a downward trend in wave heights and we should see a gradual downward trend tonight. Surf is expected to fall just below advisory levels by Thursday, but will remain rough and elevated for the foreseeable future. Trades are expected to restrengthen over the weekend into early next week, which will produce another round of advisory level surf and possibly warning level surf along east facing shores of Oahu and Kauai.
Small to medium northwest swells will continue through the weekend with smaller surf expected during the first half of next week. Currently we have a small northwest swell that filled in during the day today and will be followed by a slightly larger northwest swells Thursday and Friday. Small along south facing shores will continue to remain small with some background windswell for select exposures.
Thunderstorms remain a possibility in the offshore waters to the southwest and west of the Hawaiian coastal waters, due to an upper level trough in the area. While this upper level feature is expected to weaken over the next couple of days, a new developing mid to upper level trough moving in from the northwest will maintain the possibility for thunderstorms through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island East, Big Island North, Big Island Southeast, East Honolulu, Kahoolawe, Kauai East, Kipahulu, Koolau Windward, Maui Windward West, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Windward, Olomana, South Haleakala, Windward Haleakala.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov