Hilo

Tonight: Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 74 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Showers. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 48 to 55 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday: Cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Very windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 51 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Very windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 75 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Windy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Very windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 51 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Very windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 75 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Windy. Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Windy. Cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 72 to 79 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday Night: Windy. Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 74 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday Night: Showers. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 48 to 55 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Windy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Monday: Windy. Cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to 59 to 65 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy. Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 47 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 65 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Update

Currently at the surface, a trough of low pressure is located just south and southwest of the state, while a 1035 mb high is centered several hundred miles north of the islands. The gradient remains very strong locally, with windy conditions affecting the entire state. The strongest winds continue to be over and downwind of the higher terrain, through valleys, and in other local acceleration areas, where frequent wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph have been occurring throughout the day. Infrared satellite imagery shows overcast conditions across the islands. Radar imagery shows moderate to heavy showers affecting many windward areas, particularly over Maui and the Big Island, while shower coverage and intensity is much lower in leeward areas. Main short term focus revolves around heavy rain and damaging wind potential tonight and Monday.
The overall forecast appears on track, with deep moisture remaining over the islands in association with the old dissipated front. This in combination with divergence aloft and strong winds aiding orographic lift, will continue to support areas of heavy rain primarily over windward slopes and coasts, along with a slight chance for a rumble or two of thunder. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 6 PM Monday.
Winds are forecast to strengthen overnight into Monday as the gradient over the islands tightens further. This is in response to high pressure strengthening to around 1039 mb well north of the state, while a weak low develops several hundred miles southwest of the islands. As a result, the High Wind Warning remains in effect through 6 PM Monday as well.
Finally, the Winter Storm Warning for the Big Island summits remains in effect through 6 PM Monday for elevations above 11000 feet.
See the following link for information on rainfall totals and peak wind gusts across the state during the past 24 hours:
– www.weather.gov/hfo/pns

Synopsis

Ample moisture remains over the area thanks to a surface trough (the remains of a front) and an upper level low to our west- southwest. This upper low will weaken and slowly drift farther to the southwest and away from the state through Wednesday. A surface high to our north will strengthen overnight, helping keep strong trade winds blowing through tomorrow, with only a little bit of weakening going into Tuesday. The potential for flooding will remain over all islands tonight and Monday, with the highest chance over windward Maui County and windward Big Island. Strong winds will continue to occur over all islands as well, with the strongest winds in the lee of mountains and in/near stronger showers. There is still a slight chance of thunderstorms through Monday. After Tuesday, trades will maintain above-normal strength, and windward showers will be plentiful, but the high threat potential of today through Monday will end.

Aviation

Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026
A surface high pressure passing north of the state and surface trough deepening southwest of the state will generate strong to gale force trades across the island chain into Monday. SHRA and low cigs are causing MVFR and isol IFR conds. Expect gusts in excess of 40 kts.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all islands.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol turb across all islands and adjacent waters due to the weather system over the state up to FL360. Sustained winds in excess of 30 kt is also expected into Monday.
Light icing is expected in cloud layer 110-FL250 across the state.

Marine

Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026
A trough over central waters and a strong high building north of the area will result in gale force trade winds, rough seas and numerous showers across all coastal waters through Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon for all surrounding waters. Winds are expected to ease some on Tuesday, but trade winds will remain in the strong range with near gales over the windier waters and channels through the week.
Strong trade winds will bring large and very rough surf along east facing shores through Monday night. A High Surf Warning has been issued for all exposed east facing shores through this time. Surf will slowly decline Tuesday into Wednesday but will still remain somewhat elevated, possibly advisory level Tuesday, through the remainder of the week. Trade winds will remain in the fresh to strong range from Tuesday through the end of the week.
Small to moderate north northwest to northwest swells will prevail through the week bringing minor surf to north and west facing shores. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with some small background south-southwest energy expected throughout the first half of the week. Select southern exposures exposed to the wind swell will likely see some larger waves as well.

Prev discussion

/ISSUED 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026/
Satellite shows overcast skies this afternoon, which is not surprising given the storm we are experiencing. Radar indicates widespread rain, some heavy, on all islands except Oahu. There, the leeside is relatively rain-free, but a few light showers have appeared through the afternoon so far. Most islands have reported rainfall of over an inch in the past three hours in at least a few locations, and in some cases this heavy rain is widespread. Several locations on the Big Island have reported over 10 inches of rain in the past 24 hours, with a maximum of 14.67 inches at Honokaa. There have been additional mudslides/landslides today, mainly on the Big Island. Winds were gusty in many locations, especially downwind of higher terrain. Several gusts over 60 mph have been reported (including one over 70!), with widespread reports greater than 40 mph. Numerous trees have been downed and there are many areas without power (although many others have been restored already). A final note on current conditions, today has been quite cool, with the Honolulu airport reporting a high of only 70 so far. Monday will be cool again, with perhaps just a couple degrees of warming compared to today.
An upper level low several hundred miles to the southwest is helping draw plenty of moisture northeast over the state. It is also providing cold temperatures aloft, helping to increase instability leading to isolated thunderstorms. These have remained offshore (to the southwest of Kauai County near the center of the upper level low) so far. At the surface, a 1035 mb high to the north combined with a trough of low pressure to the south has resulted in a strong pressure gradient across the region. This is bringing us the strong trade winds (generally 20-30 mph with higher gusts) at low levels. These winds become stronger as showers “mix down” stronger winds from a few thousand feet up, where wind speeds are 35-50 mph. They also become stronger as winds move down mountain ranges, where a “mountain wave” can occasionally form. This process can produce wind gusts at or above 60 mph.
The upper low will remain nearly stationary tonight, then slowly drift southwest as it weakens through Wednesday. At the surface, the high to the north will intensify tonight, helping to increase winds across the state. The High Wind Warning for most areas will remain in effect through 6 PM Monday. Rain will continue through the night and into tomorrow as well, so the Flood Watch will also remain in effect through 6 PM HST Monday. The heaviest rain is still expected across windward areas, with light to moderate rain elsewhere. Snow will continue on the summits of Big Island, therefore the Winter Storm Warning there will continue Overall, very little has changed with the forecast this afternoon.
Looking farther into the future, the surface high will undergo evolution as one center weakens and another takes its place, but the result will be a continuation of moderate to strong trade winds through next week. We will see significantly less widespread precipitation starting Wednesday, but windward areas will see numerous showers through the end of the week.
AVIATION… Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026
A surface high pressure passing north of the state and surface trough deepening southwest of the state will generate strong to gale force trades across the island chain into Monday. SHRA and low cigs are causing MVFR and isol IFR conds. Expect gusts in excess of 40 kts.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all islands.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol turb across all islands and adjacent waters due to the weather system over the state up to FL360. Sustained winds in excess of 30 kt is also expected into Monday.
Light icing is expected in cloud layer 110-FL250 across the state.
MARINE… Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026
A trough over central waters and a strong high building north of the area will result in gale force trade winds, rough seas and numerous showers across all coastal waters through Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon for all surrounding waters. Winds are expected to ease some on Tuesday, but trade winds will remain in the strong range with near gales over the windier waters and channels through the week.
Strong trade winds will bring large and very rough surf along east facing shores through Monday night. A High Surf Warning has been issued for all exposed east facing shores through this time. Surf will slowly decline Tuesday into Wednesday but will still remain somewhat elevated, possibly advisory level Tuesday, through the remainder of the week. Trade winds will remain in the fresh to strong range from Tuesday through the end of the week.
Small to moderate north northwest to northwest swells will prevail through the week bringing minor surf to north and west facing shores. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with some small background south-southwest energy expected throughout the first half of the week. Select southern exposures exposed to the wind swell will likely see some larger waves as well.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Haleakala Summit, Kona, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Kauai North, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Kauai North, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward, Molokai, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Olomana, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Big Island Summits.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov