Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 59 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Numerous showers. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to 72 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to 72 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy and haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 59 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Numerous showers. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 74 near the shore to 52 to 57 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 91 near the shore to 67 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades become locally strong this weekend into next week delivering limited clouds and showers mainly to windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

Satellite imagery shows clearly ridging established over the islands with a closed upper low established immediately to the west. Thunderstorms are common within the cold core of this low where they will remain until it shears out in the next 24-36 hours. Subtle surface pressure falls may diminish the gradient a bit or cause winds to slightly veer to ESE over the western end of the state, but this low otherwise remains inconsequential. Over the islands, the trade wind inversion is flat, registering at about 5.5kft on both the Lihue and Hilo soundings, though some diminished stability is noted on the Lihue sounding. An isolated heavy shower or two is possible over the western end of the state within any batches of deeper moisture embedded in the trades, but overall satellite imagery and model solutions indicate continued dry weather with little in the way of upstream moisture to speak of. Aloft, the resident subtropical jet funnels high clouds across area skies.
Renewed upper low development takes place directly over the islands this weekend which will maintain relatively low stability over the western end of the state, but potential appears to once again be compromised by a lack of moisture availability. Instead, expect strong mid-level ridging aligned along 150W to strengthen seasonably dry trades this weekend into next week. The best opportunity for showers will be windward/mauka zones mainly overnight.

Aviation

A stable, moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow will persist for the next couple of days. Periods of MVFR ceiling and visibility in SHRA will focused along windward slopes. VFR will dominate over most leeward areas, but sheltered terrain will experience isolated MVFR conditions each afternoon, especially on the Kona slopes of the Big Island. The stable trade wind flow will produce light turbulence below 7,000 feet, but these condition should not require SIGMET Tango through Thursday. An upper-level low to the west will send high clouds over the state and may produce some light turbulence above FL300.

Marine

High pressure will remain stationary far northeast of the islands through the week, then re-center to the north and strengthen this weekend. As a result, fresh to locally strong trades will become more widespread during the weekend into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small over the next couple of days before a small, moderate period south swell fills in Friday into the weekend. A slightly larger swell from a fetch near New Zealand could arrive early next week and hold through the middle of the week, boosting surf heights.
Surf along east facing shores will remain moderate and choppy due to moderate trade wind swell, and surf along north facing shores will remain tiny through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov