UHERO report: Hawaiʻi County housing supply increased 3% in 2024, but much more units needed

The latest housing report from the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization revealed that efforts on the Big Island and Honolulu County have been successful in at least marginally increasing housing supply, said Justin Tyndall, an associate professor at the University of Hawai‘i.

Hawaiʻi County has expanded its overall housing supply by 3% in 2024, while Honolulu County’s increase was 7%.

This increase in housing supply also has helped to reduce rent inflation in those two counties, according to Hawaiʻi Housing Factbook 2025, the third edition of UHERO’s annual report that offers a detailed analysis of the state’s housing market.

Click here to view the report in its entirety.

On Wednesday, experts with UHERO explained the report and said the largest takeaway, which is no surprise, is that not enough housing is being built to meet the demand.

While the for-sale market is influenced by out-of-state investment and the demand for second homes, the rental market is more directly connected to local supply and demand factors.

The Census Bureau reports that the total stock of residential housing on Maui and Kaua‘i has declined slightly over the past five years. While there has been a small amount of new construction on Maui and Kaua‘i, the new supply has been offset by conversions of existing units to non-residential uses, particularly vacation rentals. Maui also lost more than 1,500 homes to the Lahaina wildfire of 2023.

Compared to the state average, rent growth was 51% faster on Kaua‘i and 37% faster on Maui. There is clear and recent evidence from research of other markets that supply growth leads to relative declines in local rents.

“I think that gives some proof that the increase in housing supply would improve affordability,” Tyndall said. “But the bottom line is that housing is still way too unaffordable across all of the counties.”

If Hawai‘i wants to get to a point where housing is more affordable, Tyndall said, more housing needs to be built. In looking at data over the decades, he said the state built around 150,000 units of housing in the 1970s.

Every decade after that, Tyndall said less housing was built.

“For the 2020s, we’re on pace to build less still,” he said.

Over the past year, Tyndall said the single-family home market is probably the least affordable it’s ever been, with prices up about 6% from last year.

“Interest rates are still very high and this means single-family homes are extremely unaffordable for the majority of people,” he said. “We find about only one in four people would have the income necessary to purchase a new home and carry that mortgage.”

Tyndall said Hawai‘i is among the highest rents in the country, a little less than California.

“In terms of overall affordability, we’re in a bad place, but it hasn’t deteriorated so much recently,” Tyndall said.

Across the state, the median single-family home sold in 2024 was $950,000, 6% higher than 2023, while the median price for a condominium transaction was $600,000, 6% lower than 2023.

Three of the state’s four counties have median single-family home prices exceeding a million dollars, while Hawai‘i County’s median remains lower and varies more widely across the island.

For example, the median price in Kailua-Kona was $1.2 million, while the median in other areas
has remained below half a million.

Areas with the highest median single-family home prices in 2024 included Pā‘ia on Maui at $3.1 million and Princeville on Kaua‘i at $2.2 million.

In 2024, there were 6,835 single-family home transactions and 8,628 condominium transactions across the state, up slightly from 2023. Mortgage interest rates have remained high, averaging 6.7% in 2024, down slightly from 6.8% in 2023.

Tyndall noted a slightly more optimistic outlook with the condominium market, saying prices were down a bit last year, meaning more people can afford a condo.

“I think the bad news hidden within that good news is part of that is because of this mortgage, or home insurance crisis, the condominium insurance crisis,” Tyndall said. “This pulling back of insurers unwilling to provide insurance to condominiums means that a lot of people can’t qualify for a mortgage on a condominium, which has zapped some demand.”