Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 45 to 53 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to 60 to 67 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 65 near the shore to 45 to 53 at 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to 40 to 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Haze. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 68 near the shore to 40 to 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 68 near the shore to 50 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 60 to 79. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 49 to 56 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 68 near the shore to 50 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 60 to 79. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 49 to 56 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Sunday: Sunny and haze. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 45 to 53 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to 60 to 67 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 65 near the shore to 45 to 53 at 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy and haze. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to 44 to 50 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 44 to 49 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Dry and stable conditions will persist across the state through the weekend. A gradual return to a more typical trade wind pattern is anticipated Sunday night through Tuesday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Rainfall chances could increase around midweek as another cold front approaches, though uncertainty remains high regarding its potential impact on winds and rainfall distribution.

Discussion

Current radar and satellite imagery show a band of moisture with increased cloud cover and showers pushing south of the Big Island this afternoon. Otherwise, some fair-weather cumulus clouds can be seen streaming into windward and mauka areas on the northeasterly trades with very little shower activity.
This weekend will be marked by drier conditions with little to no rainfall for most areas, cooler mornings and gentle to breezy northeast trades as drier air continues to filter in across the state and high pressure builds to the north. Early next week, we'll see a return to a more typical trade wind pattern as a slight uptick in moisture brings showers to the typical windward and mauka areas. However, mid-level ridging will build in from the west through early next week, helping to increase stability across the area, and combined with lower than average precipitable water values, help to limit any rainfall.
Beyond Tuesday, forecast confidence decreases due to significant model discrepancies. While the general model consensus shows height falls across Hawaii midweek as an upper-level trough digs south across the Central Pacific, uncertainty remains high regarding the development and timing of this upper-level disturbance and its attendant surface low and cold front.
A hot spot over the Halemaumau Crater on the Big Island continues to be seen on infrared satellite imagery. The University of Hawaii Vog Model shows that SO2 emissions should remain focused over south and east facing slopes of the Big Island from Volcano to South Point through early next week, with lighter concentrations wrapping around to the Kailua-Kona area. Due to the northeasterly trade winds, SO2 emissions are not expected to reach any of the smaller islands over the next couple of days.

Aviation

A cool, dry and stable air mass will prevail through Sunday. Moderate NE winds will deliver scattered to locally broken low clouds to windward areas, with cloud bases primarily above 3000' resulting in widespread VFR conditions. No AIRMETs are expected.

Marine

A building high pressure system to the north will usher in strengthening trade winds that will continue through Tuesday. Winds are forecast to taper off around the middle of next week as a weak front approaches and moves in from the northwest.
The current long period northwest swell will steadily decline through the rest of the weekend. This will translate to declining surf through the rest of the weekend along north and west facing shores. Therefore, based on buoy observations and expected downward trend, the High Surf Warning will be downgraded to High Surf Advisory and be extended through the day Sunday. The next northwest swell is scheduled to arrive next Tuesday into Wednesday. This swell could generate advisory level surf along many north and west- facing shores.
East-facing shore surf will become more choppy the next couple of days as the trades build, and background south swell will keep surf small on south facing shores through the coming week.
The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will be scaled back to the typical windy zones around Maui and Big Island through Sunday night. Will also include coastal waters around Kauai due to elevated seas based on the Hanalei buoy observation.

Fire weather

Drier air will continue to filter across the state through tomorrow, lowering relative humidity values to near critical thresholds. However, winds look to remain light enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. Looking at next week, while relative humidity values may dip into the upper forties at times, the likelihood for critical fire weather conditions remains low through the period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov