Hilo

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 58 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs 63 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 58 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs 63 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Puna

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 58 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Stable and somewhat dry conditions will persist as light northerly winds shift to a more typical northeasterly direction late Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect modest rainfall over windward slopes, while daytime sea breezes produce afternoon clouds and minimal showers over leeward terrain. Trade winds will strengthen Thursday and Friday, then decline Sunday and next Monday.

Discussion

Stable and somewhat dry conditions are expected during the next couple of days. A weak northerly flow over the islands is being driven by a departing area of low pressure centered nearly 900 miles northeast of Hawaii and developing surface high pressure to the northwest. While this flow is not as dry as the weekend airmass, only a few light showers are expected over most windward and north facing slopes, with higher chances for some rainfall on windward Big Island and east Maui tonight. The weak flow will be overpowered by daytime sea breezes, and while some afternoon clouds can be expected over leeward terrain, the only places with a significant chance for any rainfall will be the leeward slopes of the Big Island and Haleakala on Maui. As a weak surface ridge builds north of the state late Tuesday and Wednesday, winds will gradually swing around from a more typical northeasterly direction, but little change is due in the rather dry rainfall pattern. Also, as a ridge aloft builds overhead from the west, high clouds will move away from the Big Island.
Trade winds are expected to slowly build Thursday and may become locally breezy on Friday as the surface ridge to the north strengthens. Very stable conditions will prevail on Thursday as a ridge aloft passes overhead on Thursday, giving way to a shallow upper-level trough that will bring a period of thickening high clouds Friday and Saturday. With moisture in the trade wind flow below seasonal average, limited windward rainfall and rather dry conditions leeward are favored.
Ensemble guidance suggests the surface ridge will be displaced southward toward the islands Sunday and Monday, hinting as weakening trade winds.

Aviation

The tail end of a dissipating front should bring scattered low clouds with a few light showers tonight, mainly windward areas. Some brief MVFR ceilings will be possible with any clouds or showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail. Winds will mainly be light with land breezes developing tonight. Trade winds are expected to gradually return on Tuesday.
No AIRMETs are in effect.

Marine

Light to moderate northerly winds will persist through Tuesday then transition to moderate to fresh northeast to east trades by midweek as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of a diminishing front. Expect localized wind accelerations into the moderate to fresh category near and along some east and west facing coasts through the late morning and afternoon periods, while the background northerly flow persists. Winds may ease next weekend with a potential front passing to the north.
Surf along exposed N and W facing shores will gradually lower tonight through midweek as a medium period NW (310 degrees) swell fades. A fresh, long period NW swell is building this afternoon and will peak late Tuesday into Tuesday night then subside through Thursday. Toward the end of the week, a larger long- period NW (300-320 degrees) swell is expected due to a storm- force low developing around 1500 NM northwest of the islands this week. If conditions develop as forecast, surf heights could reach warning levels late Friday into early Saturday before easing during the remainder of the weekend.
Surf along E facing shores will remain up through the first half of the week as a small, short-to medium-period NNE (020 degrees) swell lingers. A NE swell then arrives Friday and peaks over the weekend.
Surf along S facing shores will remain near seasonal averages this week, driven by a mix of short period SE and background long period SSW swells. Early next week, an out-of-season SSW is possible. This swell is expected to originate from a broad gale passing southeast of New Zealand today. This active trend may persist through the first week of December as a similar system passing near New Zealand is forecast to follow later this week.

Fire weather

KBDI values remain elevated across many leeward areas, and significant rainfall remains highly unlikely through at least the weekend. During the next couple of days, relative humidity is expected to be above the critical fire weather threshold, and winds will remain weak. As a result, critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated through Wednesday. At this point, the winds on Thursday through Saturday look to fall short of critical levels, but conditions should remain rather dry, leading to some fire weather concerns.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov