Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 61 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 90 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 76 near the shore to 51 to 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 60 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 61 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 57 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 91 near the shore to 68 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 57 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Interior clouds and spotty showers will continue into this evening. Northeasterly trade winds will return from east to west across the state tonight, then become easterly and locally breezy this weekend. Dry conditions will continue through Thursday, followed by a more typical pattern of windward-focused showers Friday through early next week.

Discussion

Surface low pressure is weakening north of the state, allowing the subtropical ridge to begin to strengthen and lift back northward. As a result, winds have become light out of the southeast to south from Kauai to Maui, with rebuilding easterly trade winds around the Big Island.
Moderate trade winds will build back in from east to west across the island chain tonight through the end of the week as broad high pressure in the North Pacific expands and strengthens. Relatively dry conditions will continue through Thursday, followed by a return to typical, late summer trade wind weather with showers mainly focused along windward slopes during the overnight and early morning hours. With the exception of afternoon showers on the Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas should remain rather dry. Trades look to strengthen this weekend into early next week. The global models are hinting at an area of increased low-level moisture moving through late this weekend into Tuesday, which could give a slight boost to windward showers. However, significant differences remain between the models on the amount and extent of this moisture pool, so the forecast PoPs remain close to climatology at this time.

Aviation

A trough just north of Kauai will drive light southeasterly background winds across the state. Current sea breezes this afternoon will transition to gentle land breezes/offshore flow that will clear the island areas out tonight. Through this evening, AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 030 for Big Island windward and southeast slopes. VFR conditions prevail elsewhere.

Marine

A weak surface trough in the northwest offshore waters will continue to drift northwest through Thursday. Light to gentle southeast flow will continue to prevail over the western waters through the evening before trade winds gradually return east to west across the waters. Trade winds look to gradually strengthen to the moderate to fresh speeds Thursday and continue through the weekend. Guidance suggest subtle times where windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island get up to locally strong conditions A Small Craft Advisory may be borderline through the weekend. As high pressure builds northeast of the waters early next week, moderate to locally strong trade winds will return.
Surf along north facing shores will continue to decline as the short to medium-period north swell fades through the end of the week. North shore surf will return to mostly flat levels over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain tiny except shores exposed to the north swell this evening. The return of fresh to strong trades will allow for rough and choppy surf to gradually build back to near normal levels Friday through the weekend.
A mix of background southwest and southeast swells will produce small surf over the next few days. A slight uptick is expected from the south south-west this Friday as a small long period swell moves in and holds through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov