Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 60 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 60 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 60 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 77 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 60 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 77 near the shore to around 58 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 56 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Gentle to moderate trade winds through Friday, with a slight strengthening this weekend. Light showers will mainly favor windward and mauka areas locations, with a few afternoon interior and leeward showers possible under the lighter winds.

Discussion

Visible satellite and radar shows sea breeze cloud build ups over the Big Island and east Maui, with a few light showers popping up on radar. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds are focusing low clouds and isolated showers across the windward slopes. Afternoon soundings reflect the stable atmosphere with 6 kft inversion and precipitable water values below average around 1.2 to 1.3 inches. The synoptic pattern is set up with an upper low and stalled front north of Hawaii keeping the seasonal high pressure from pushing in stronger trades. This feature is expected to weaken by this weekend, which will provide a slight boost to wind speeds. Moisture levels should stay fairly consistent over the next couple of days, so expect a diurnal pattern of windward and mauka clouds and showers mainly at night, and during the afternoons over leeward Big Island and leeward Haleakala.
Long range GFS and ECMWF show another cold front diving in and merging with decaying front to the north this weekend, and then dissipating into the middle of next week. This will result in moderate trade winds for the weekend into next week, with an overall dry, stable pattern.

Aviation

Light to moderate trades continue through the forecast period allowing for sea breezes to expand and support increased cloud cover over sheltered leeward areas during the afternoon. Leeward Leeward shower activity will be minimal. Isolated showers windward and mauka may bring transient MVFR conditions but VFR is forecast to prevail.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

A front passing far to the north of the Hawaiian Islands has weakened the trade winds surrounding the state. High pressure will rebuild over the north Pacific and may restrengthen trade winds briefly this weekend.
A new medium period north swell will build in late tonight, peak late Thursday night, then gradually decline Friday through Saturday. For the coming week, no new north swells are expected. Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Friday, but pick up during the weekend with the increased trade wind flow. Meanwhile, small background swells from the south and southwest will keep the surf from going entirely flat along south facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov