Kīlauea alert status raised to advisory

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory increased Kilauea Volcano’s alert status at advisory.

Elevated rates of ground deformation in Kīlauea’s middle East Rift Zone continue following the June 22–25 upper East Rift Zone intrusion within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. These observations indicate that magma is accumulating beneath the ground in the area of Makaopuhi Crater and Napau Crater, a well-known magma storage region on Kīlauea’s remote middle East Rift Zone.

The current volcanic activity is within the national park boundaries and does not present a threat outside the park. and does not pose a threat outside of the park.

Earthquakes have continued to occur in the upper East Rift Zone with around 70 events per day per day and 25 events in the middle East Rift Zone since the July 22–25 intrusion. Most events have been smaller than magnitude 2 and located 1.5–2.2 miles beneath the ground surface.

At Kīlauea’s summit, earthquake activity has remained low following the upper East Rift Zone intrusion, while ground deformation patterns have shown steady inflation since July 26.

The map below shows recent deformation at Kīlauea, over the timeframe of July 26 to Aug. 7 from data acquired by the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1A satellite. Colored fringes denote areas of ground deformation, with more fringes indicating more deformation.

Each color cycle represents 1.1 inch of ground motion. The round feature east of Makaopuhi Crater on the East Rift Zone indicates inflation over this time period due to magma accumulation underground.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory listed out some possible scenarios that could play out in the coming days to weeks:    

• No eruption: Magma accumulation continues to slow or stop below the surface near Makaopuhi Crater and does not result in an eruption.

• Upper to Middle East Rift Zone intrusion or eruption: New pulses of magma could be transferred from the summit to the middle East Rift Zone below the surface to the area from Maunaulu to Napau Crater, leading to an intrusion or eruption in the upper to middle East Rift Zone within Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park. In this scenario, we would expect to see increased rates of earthquakes in the upper to middle East Rift Zone along with ground deformation and summit deflation before lava reached the surface.

• Summit eruption: It is possible that an eruption could occur in the summit region. In this scenario, we would expect to see increased rates of seismicity and ground deformation in the summit region before lava reached the surface.

• Eastward magma migration: New pulses of magma could continue to accumulate below the surface near Makaopuhi Crater and migrate eastward toward and possibly beyond Puʻuʻōʻō. In this scenario, we would expect to see earthquake locations and ground deformation patterns start to occur further east than they are now. This scenario is less likely than the above scenarios based on current activity.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory continues to closely monitor Kīlauea, watching for any signs of unrest that may precede a new eruption. Should volcanic activity change significantly, a Volcanic Activity Notice will be issued.