Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 64 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 55 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 64 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 55 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 65 to 74 above 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 53 above 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 65 to 75 above 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A stable, moderate trade wind pattern will prevail through Monday with mainly light showers focused over the windward and mountain areas. Increasing trade winds, and slightly wetter conditions, are possible during the middle of the week, with breezy trades continuing into next weekend.

Discussion

No significant changes to the forecast with the morning package. In the short term the main change for today was a small uptick in showers for the windward side of the Big Island. Other changes in the later periods of the forecast were to nudge the forecast to the latest National Blend of Models as we head into next weekend.
With a ridge building to the north of the islands, expect trades to prevail through the week. The pressure gradient will tighten Monday and Tuesday as the ridge strengthens, and then another uptick is possible later in the week into the weekend.
A stable airmass remains overhead, limiting shower activity and amounts into Monday. The mid level ridge will begin to lift northward Monday and Tuesday, allowing some additional shower activity to spread over the islands. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with an uptick in shower activity Tuesday/Wednesday. During the second half of the week, the GFS remains a bit wetter than the ECMWF. The current forecast leans towards that slightly wetter pattern.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected to continue through Monday. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with clouds and passing showers will be possible, mainly over windward and mauka areas. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure far northeast of the state will keep gentle to locally fresh trade winds into Monday. The ridge to the north looks to strengthen over the next few days and bring back moderate to locally strong trade winds Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely go back up for the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island.
Small surf will hold along south facing shores over the next few days as the current small south- southeast swell will hold today before a south- southwest swell will build in Monday and maintain small surf through the first half of next week. Into the long range, a moderate long period south southwest swell is expected towards the end of next week as a strong low in the southwest pacific continues to develop.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to small as a northeast swell comes through before declining Monday. Surf along east facing shores will trend up Tuesday as trade winds strengthen across the region.
The combination of higher than normal water levels and afternoon spring tides are resulting in water levels running over half a foot above guidance around the Big Island and Maui. This will cause minor coastal flooding issues for both Big Island and Maui this afternoon during peak high tide.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov