Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 84 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to 68 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to 68 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to 68 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to 68 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 84 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 66 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 65 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will build today, increasing trade wind speeds into the moderate to breezy range. These breezy trade winds will continue through much of the week. Fairly stable conditions aloft will keep brief passing showers over windward and mountain areas, mainly in the overnight to early morning hours.

Discussion

An upper level low shown on satellite water vapor imagery is roughly 350 miles north of the island of Kauai will weaken as it lifts farther northward over the next 24 hours. Infrared satellite imagery east (upstream) of the island chain shows fairly stable clouds riding in on the trade winds. These passing stable clouds will not produce much rainfall over the islands in the short term.
Starting today the high pressure ridge north of the islands will build into the Hawaii Region,producing more stable conditions with less clouds, lower shower trends, and increasing trade wind speeds into the moderate to breezy range through Friday. Expect limited showers for most windward areas with lower shower activity over the typically drier leeward regions. Trade wind thermal inversion heights will range from around 5,000 to 6,500 feet in most locations in a fairly stable weather pattern. Some exceptions may include the eastern slopes of Maui and the Big Island where periods of passing rain showers will likely continue.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through tonight. Some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in windward areas, particularly over the Big Island early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will bring fresh to strong trade winds today and persist through most of the week. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the waters and channels around the Maui and The Big Island. Trades may weaken slightly on Wednesday, before a slight uptick on Thursday and Friday.
No significant south swells are expected through this upcoming week. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast swells will keep south facing shores from going flat.
Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along north facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf will gradually trend up closer to seasonal levels late today through the middle of this week as the trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the California coast should bring a small northeast (050 to 060 degree) swell by this weekend and into early next week. Some of this swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as well.
Water levels running roughly 0.5 ft higher than normal around the Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor flooding issues between July 2nd and July 6th with peak water levels expected on July 4th. During our last full moon, we received reports of some areas of the coastline becoming inundated with the high tide such as Coconut Island and Puhi Bay. A Coastal Flood Statement will likely be needed for the Big Island near the 4th of July. For the other islands, water levels are running just a touch above normal and will likely not reach our criteria of 1 foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for windier waters around Maui and the Big Island.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov