Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 66 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 66 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 66 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 66 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 83 near the shore to 64 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 64 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy easterly trade winds will become strong and gusty later today through the second half of the week as high pressure strengthens north of the state. Windward shower coverage may increase through this period, with some showers occasionally making it to leeward areas of the smaller islands. Drier and more stable conditions will return over the weekend, with the easterly trades easing into the moderate to breezy range. Rainfall chances could trend up again early next week as an upper disturbance moves through.
Discussion
Guidance remains in good agreement through the second half of the week and shows high pressure building north of the state. The easterly trades will respond and become strong beginning later today, then likely strong enough for localized wind advisories through the day Thursday over the typically windier locations of Maui County and the Big Island. In addition to the strengthening winds, windward shower coverage could trend up due to a combination of a weak mid- to upper-level trough and a sufficient amount low-level moisture in the area. Some of these showers will manage to make it over to leeward areas of the smaller islands, especially overnight through the mornings. Rainfall accumulations should remain light.
Drier and more stable conditions will briefly return over the weekend as upper heights rise and PWs dip to around an inch. Trade winds are expected to ease into the moderate range due to a weakness forming in the ridge as a front passes to the north.
The forecast confidence lowers early next week due to significant differences shown between the various model solutions. While the GFS solutions are more aggressive and depict the tail-end of the aforementioned front moving through the area with strong northerly winds trailing it, the ECMWF shows it hanging up to the north with easterly trades holding (agrees with the blended guidance). Regardless of these differences, the attendant upper trough digging southward over the region drawing moisture into the area should be enough to support a transition to a wetter pattern Monday through midweek.
Aviation
Moderate to breezy easterly trades will continue through the remainder of this morning as surface high pressure remains anchored to the north of the state. Scattered showers will mainly be confined to windward locations with the occasional spill over to leeward sides. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur with any of the more robust showers. By this afternoon, trades will strengthen further and become windy at times. This stronger flow will persist this evening into tonight and bring scattered to numerous showers to windward locations.
AIRMET Sierra has been issued above 2000 feet for north through east sections of Oahu due to tempo mountain obscuration from low clouds and showers.
Marine
High pressure north of the main Hawaiian Islands will move eastward and strengthen over the next few days, resulting in increased trade wind speeds across local waters through the rest of the work week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typical windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island but has been expanded to include windward and leeward waters around Maui County and Oahu.
Strong trades will create rough and choppy surf along east facing shores which will continue into next week. Moderate west- northwest (310 degree) swell will gradually decrease today. Expect additional small northwest (310-320 degree) swells from Thursday into early next week. Mainly background surf will continue for south facing shores through the weekend with some long period energy arriving early next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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