Today: Showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tonight: Showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
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Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Showers. Highs 62 to 78. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tonight: Showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Kohala
Today: Showers. Highs 62 to 78. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
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Tonight: Showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
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Today: Showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tonight: Showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 73 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Persistent light showers along and behind a weakening front will affect windward terrain of the Big Island and to a lesser extent Maui County through Saturday. Meanwhile moderate north to northeast winds will allow cloud cover to gradually decrease and cooler drier air to filter southeastward down the island chain. Moderate trade winds will persist Sunday through Thursday, with fairly typical, albeit drier than normal, trade wind weather prevailing.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a weakening cold front is in the vicinity of the Big Island, while a 1022 mb high is centered around 900 miles northwest of Kauai. Moderate to locally breezy northerly winds persist across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows considerable cloudiness across the state, with mostly cloudy to overcast conditions in most areas. Radar imagery shows a few showers moving into windward sections of Kauai and Oahu, while more persistent showers continue to affect north facing slopes of Maui County and the Big Island. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and cloud cover trends.
The cold front will remain nearly stationary and gradually dissipate in the vicinity of the Big Island today and tonight. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will slide northeast, well to the north of the islands through Saturday. Moderate to locally breezy northerly winds will shift northeast and ease into the light to moderate range today through Saturday. Ridging will strengthen north of the islands Sunday and Monday, boosting the trades back to moderate levels. The ridge will persist north of the state keeping moderate trades blowing through the middle of next week, with a new high building northwest of the islands potentially boosting trades to breezy levels Thursday.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the high elevation summits on the Big Island through 6 AM Saturday. The latest model guidance shows the potential for warning level winds on the Big Island summits late today or tonight, and the advisory may eventually need to be upgraded to a High Wind Warning.
As for the remaining weather details, persistent showers will continue to affect north and northeast facing slopes and coasts of Maui County and the Big Island this morning, with some gradual improvement expected across Maui County by late in the day. Meanwhile, shower activity should remain light and limited to windward slopes on Kauai and Oahu. Cloud cover should gradually decrease across Kauai and Oahu today, while Maui County and the Big Island appear to remain rather cloudy, particularly in windward areas.
The remnant moisture band from the dissipated front will linger near the Big Island Friday night and Saturday, allowing showers to persist over windward Big Island and to a lesser extent windward Maui. Meanwhile, mostly dry conditions will continue on Oahu and Kauai. There remains some mixed signals in the model guidance with respect to boundary layer moistening from Sunday through Thursday, but the general idea appears to be a return to a more typical, albeit drier than normal, trade wind pattern across the island chain.
Aviation
High pressure continues to build in from the west as a front across the state drifts eastward. North winds will continue to spread bands of showery low clouds across the islands. Expect MVFR conditions in showers, mainly across the central islands. Cloudy, but VFR conditions will dominate TAF sites elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for occasional mountain obscuration across portions of all islands through this morning. This AIRMET will likely be needed through the rest of today.
No other AIRMET are in effect or are expected.
Marine
A weakening cold front will continue to move over the far southeast portions of the coastal waters this morning. High pressure to the northwest of the islands will gradually drift east as moderate to locally strong north-northeast winds will persist through Saturday. Winds are expected to remain mostly below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds through early next week although SCA level seas will impact all zones with the exception of waters south of the Big Island as the current large northwest swell peaks throughout the day. Trade winds will veer to the east, ease into the light to moderate range this weekend, and hold through the middle of next week as a new high builds northwest of the islands.
A long period, large to extra-large northwest swell will continue to fill in this morning. Observations at the nearshore PacIOOS Buoy 51201 show a sharp rise early this morning, and is expected to peak this morning over the smaller islands. A High Surf Warning (HSW) is out for the north and west facing shores of the smaller islands, and north facing shores of Maui through today. Due to the size and west angle, west facing shores of the Big Island are under a High Surf Advisory (HSA) through today as well. The swell is expected to decline through tonight but remain elevated into Saturday as a HSA will likely replace the HSW this afternoon. This also translates to pulling back zones from the SCA due to seas dropping below 10 feet over leeward zones.
A reinforcing northwest swell should arrive late Saturday night, keeping moderate sized surf along north and west facing shores through early next week. Another long period northwest swell reinforcement may push surf up to HSA levels Wednesday of next week.
South shore surf will remain tiny through Saturday. A south swell arriving Sunday should produce a slight increase in the surf that is expected to persist through Monday. East shore surf will also remain small through early next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kona, Kohala.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Leeward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel.
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