Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday: Numerous showers in the morning, then occasional showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Scattered showers in the morning, then occasional showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Scattered showers in the morning, then occasional showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny and breezy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday: Numerous showers in the morning, then occasional showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67 near the shore to 45 to 53 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
High pressure far north of the main Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trades blowing through the weekend. Trade winds will weaken on Sunday as the high moves away. By Sunday, an upper trough developing over the islands generate more frequent trade wind showers, a trend which will last through much of next week. A new high forecast to build north of the islands will increase trades to locally windy levels by Tuesday.
Discussion
A high far north of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive breezy to locally windy trade winds over the islands this morning. Overnight soundings show our airmass is relatively dry, with PW between 0.9 and to 1.2 inches. Satellite loop shows an upper low far northeast of the Big Island, with an associated upper trough extending southwest over waters just east of the state. As the low and upper trough move east and away from the islands, expect weak upper ridging and brief warming aloft. This should make for a pretty nice day today across the state. Showers should be limited and relatively light, with considerable sunshine for most areas.
An upper trough will dig over the islands late tonight into Sunday, then linger for much of next week. Instability will increase as cold air builds in aloft. At the same time, trades winds will weaken a bit as the high moves away. Winds will restrengthen, back to at least locally windy levels, as another high passes north of the islands early next week. The northern fringes of an area of deeper moisture to the east and southeast of the Big Island will approach the Big Island on Sunday and linger into the first half of the week.
Expect wetter trade wind weather early next week, with two time periods of higher confidence for heavier downpours and possible thunderstorms. One is over the windward side of the Big Island Sunday night into Monday as deeper moisture moves in. The next is Monday night into Tuesday, mainly near Kauai, as cold temperatures aloft and airmass instability associated with upper troughing move in from the northwest. There is a chance of wintry weather at the summits of Mauna Loa, Mauna Kea, and possibly even Haleakala. Models show the upper trough will linger into the latter half of the week. Low level moisture will gradually decrease and the subtropical jet streak will shift east and away from the state. This should lead to a gradual decrease in trade wind shower intensity and coverage.
Aviation
VFR conditions will prevail with breezy trade winds bringing occasional MVFR clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas. Low clouds remain anchored over windward Oahu this morning so AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains posted. May need to extend AIRMET Sierra to other windward slopes as another plume of moisture moves through.
AIRMET Tango for moderate lee turbulence remains in effect across all islands.
Marine
Winds will briefly ease from Sunday into Monday as the high north of the state weakens and drifts southeastward. Otherwise moderate to locally strong trade winds to continue for most days into next week as two additional high pressure systems pass by just north of Hawaii. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui through tonight, with borderline conditions expected on Sunday. The SCA will likely be needed for all waters late Monday or by Tuesday.
Small to moderate swells from around the compass will continue into early next week. A small north-northeast swell will continue today, and a reinforcing moderate pulse is expected by tonight and Sunday, followed by a decline from Monday to Tuesday. Though the bulk of this swell energy will pass east of Hawaii, we will need to monitor local buoys, as a larger than expected swell may pose a risk of harbor surges at Hilo and Kahului. Meanwhile, a small northwest swell will build this weekend and produce surf near the High Surf Advisory levels from Sunday night to Monday, before declining through the remainder of next week.
A small, out of season south swell will hold today and then slowly decline on Sunday and Monday. Moderate trade wind swell will persist near seasonal average today and will ease slightly on Sunday before rebuilding early next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Big Island Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments
