Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 62 to 78. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 62 to 78. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to 45 to 53 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy trade winds will prevail through the forecast period, potentially strengthening early next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with shower enhancement likely as destabilizing upper troughs pass by.
Discussion
Satellite loop shows a broad anticyclonic circulation associated with a high far north of the main Hawaiian Islands. Along the southern flank of this high, breezy easterly trade winds persist across local waters this morning. Models show this flow will continue through the weekend as the high moves slowly southeastward and gradually weakens. The high will dissipate far northeast of the islands on Monday, but a new high building northwest of the islands will drive breezy to strong trade winds through next week.
Upper troughing will prevail into next week, except for a brief period tonight and Saturday, when weak upper ridging will develop over the islands. Weak upper troughing exists across the islands this morning, with deep convection south of the islands and high clouds across the Big Island marking its eastern flank. The overall weather pattern will be fairly wet, especially for windward areas. Expect afternoon showers over leeward Big Island slopes as well. Another upper trough, expected to develop Sunday into Tuesday, may form a closed low over the islands, leading to a period of increased instability and very wet trade wind weather. Models show this upper trough may linger all week once formed. A few thunderstorms may develop during this time, depending on how the trough evolves, but confidence remains too low to include these in the gridded database.
Aviation
VFR conditions will prevail with breezy trade winds bringing occasional MVFR clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas. Will see an uptick in showers across the state this morning as a plume of moisture moves through which could result in a period of tempo mountain obscurations and the issuance of AIRMET Sierra.
Otherwise, no AIRMETs are in effect.
Marine
Surface high pressure centered far north of the main Hawaiian Islands will move southeast closer to the state and stall over the next several days. The high will dissipate far northeast of the islands on Monday, but a new high building northwest and north of the islands will continue to support breezy to locally strong trade winds through next week. The strongest winds will be confined to the typically windier waters around Maui County, the Big Island, and the Kaiwi Channel today. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues for these areas through today, then gets pulled back to the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island tonight through Saturday. It is possible that the remaining coastal zones will be added back into the SCA early next week with strong to locally near-gale force trade winds expected Monday and Tuesday.
Choppy wind waves are expected well into next week, keeping surf along east facing shores rough throughout the forecast period. Surf along north facing shores will remain small through the morning, then trend upwards slowly this afternoon as a moderate north- northeast swell begins to fill in across the islands. This north- northeast swell will peak over the weekend and gradually trend down early next week. Additionally, a long period northwest swell will arrive on Saturday. Surf will likely build and peak near High Surf Advisory thresholds across exposed north and west facing shores late Sunday into early Monday before the west- northwest swell declines Monday night. A small to moderate, long-period south swell has filled in across south facing shores this morning and will peak later today into Saturday, before easing Saturday night.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi Channel.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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