Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68 near the shore to 46 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 69 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate east to southeast trades will continue through midweek, with the best rainfall chances remaining over windward and mauka locations through the overnight and early morning periods. Increasing moisture and a return of breezy easterly trades will support better windward shower coverage later in the week through the weekend.
Discussion
Guidance remains in good agreement and shows surface high pressure to the north weakening and shifting to an area northeast of the state today through Wednesday as a front passes far to the north and deep low pressure begins to set up to the west. The low-level flow will respond and veer out of the east-southeast while holding at moderate levels. The dry and stable conditions associated with deep layer ridging over the state will limit windward shower coverage, with the best chances overnight through the morning hours. Increasing cloud coverage along with a few afternoon showers can't be ruled out over leeward areas where localized sea breezes form.
Although forecast confidence lowers Thursday through the weekend due to persistent differences shown within the guidance, all generally depict a moistening trend as deep low pressure evolves to the west and drifts eastward toward the islands. The tightening pressure gradient between this feature and strong high pressure building to the north will lead to breezy easterly trades returning. This moistening trend combined with a band of low-level moisture associated with an old front moving in from the northeast over the weekend will support increasing rainfall chances across windward and mauka locations, with some showers spilling over into leeward sections of the smaller islands.
Aviation
High pressure northeast of the state will maintain light to moderate easterly trade winds during the next 24 hours, with some localized land and sea breezes possible in the more sheltered areas. Rather dry conditions will prevail, with a few light showers affecting windward and mauka areas at times. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected today.
Marine
Surface high pressure north of the state will slowly weaken and move eastward today. East to southeast winds will slowly decline but remain fresh to locally strong. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windy waters around the Big Island and Maui through Wednesday. The combination of another high building far north of the islands and low pressure developing far to the west will likely bring increasing east to east-southeast trade winds by late Wednesday and Thursday. Stronger winds are possible this weekend.
A small to moderate long period northwest swell (320 to 330 degrees) will build down the island chain today. Long period forerunners is already underway at the nearshore PacIOOS 51201. This swell is expected to have continued reinforcements through Friday although all below High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels. A medium period north (360 to 010 degrees) swell will continue to decline through Wednesday. This declining swell is still producing moderate surf along most north and exposed east facing shores.
A similarly sized northwest swell and a small north-northeast swell are possible this upcoming weekend. East shores will experience some wrapping north swell through Tuesday, followed by moderate, short period wind swell through Friday and potentially higher seas this weekend. South shores will remain seasonably small.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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