Today: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 61 near the shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 62 near the shore to around 48 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 44 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy to windy easterly trade winds will gradually ease over the next several days becoming gentle to locally breezy Thursday into the weekend. Trade wind showers will mainly focus over coastal windward and mauka slopes with occasional showers spilling into leeward communities. An approaching front from the northwest will allow winds to ease to light to gentle wind speeds and veer out of the southeast over the weekend.
Discussion
A 1033 mb Surface high pressure around 1000 miles northeast of the islands continues to drive breezy to locally windy easterly trades. Latest wind observations show that winds have been more consistently below advisory levels for elevations lower than 6 kft thus the Wind Advisory has been cancelled. The 12Z soundings verify that the resident air mass remains dry and stable, with under one inch precipitable water vapor and a stout inversion around 6.5 to 8 kft, respectively. Satellite imagery continues to show very broad field of low level stratocumulus rotating in along the southern periphery of the surface high. Radar imagery depicts light to moderate scattered showers embedded in the trade flow, generally focusing in on east- facing coasts and slopes. Overnight rainfall totals range form 0.01 of an inch to just less than 1 inch for the typically wet areas such as Mount Waialeale.
The surface high will gradually weaken over the next couple of days, relaxing the pressure gradient. Wind speeds will respond by also gradually easing during this time becoming gentle to locally breezy by Thursday. Trade showers will continue to favor windward and higher elevations with the occasional cell reaching leeward areas. A couple fronts passing north then near the state late this week and early next week, will push this high pressure and trailing ridge east of the state allowing winds to become light to gentle over the weekend and veer out of the southeast. As trades fall off late this week and weekend, a hybrid pattern of windward and mauka trades showers along with afternoon interior/leeward showers may be more common as land/seabreezes take over.
Aviation
Gusty trades will prevail through the TAF period, with low clouds and isolated to scattered showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Cloud and shower coverage will be greatest through the early morning hours, with some light showers spilling over into leeward areas of the smaller islands. Expect mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR possible under passing showers.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for windward Kauai due to persistent low clouds, with little change expected through the morning hours.
AIRMET Tango for moderate lee turbulence below 8,000 ft remains in effect for areas over and downwind of all island terrain for the foreseeable future.
Marine
High pressure northeast of the state continues to produce strong winds across the coastal waters this morning, but have veered to straight easterlies overnight. Maalaea Bay is now sheltered from these strong winds enough to warrant dropping the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) there. The SCA has been extended for all other Hawaiian waters through 6 am Wednesday for strong winds and elevated combined seas. The strong trade winds will gradually weaken through Thursday as the high weakens and eventually shifts east- southeast.
Though rough conditions persist, surf along exposed north and west facing shores have decreased below High Surf Advisory (HSA) threshold this morning. This advisory has been dropped for those shores with this morning's forecast package. However, thanks to continued elevated easterly wind waves and a mix of a medium- period northeast (020-040 deg) and a long period northwest (310 deg) swells, surf heights along east facing shores will continue to reach HSA threshold. The HSA has been extended only for east facing shores through this afternoon. The northeast and northwest swells will slowly decline over the next couple of days as wind waves also ease.
Models show the next significant northwest swell will move into the region Friday into the weekend.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for east facing shores of Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,
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