Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. South winds around 10 mph.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 72 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 44 to 51 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 70 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 77 near the shore to 67 to 72 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 70 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 77 near the shore to 67 to 72 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph in the afternoon.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. South winds around 10 mph.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 72 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 72 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 52 above 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 62 to 70 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
South winds are expected today with a stalling to the west of the state this weekend. Clouds, and a few showers, may impact the western end of the state today, and again Monday and Tuesday. The front could bring some unsettled weather, and windier conditions Wednesday and Thursday as it moves down the island chain.
Discussion
No major changes to the forecast with the morning package. For today and tonight, the PoP and associated fields were nudged towards the NBM No changes to the forecast or the forecast philosophy this evening. Also not expecting any significant changes to the forecast with the morning package.
Southerly winds will continue into the first part of the new week. A weakening front to the northwest of the state will slowly approach the islands, and is expected to stall west of the state this weekend. A ridge over the southern end of the island chain is helping to keep dry and stable conditions in place. The nearby front will at times send some clouds and showers over the western islands over the next couple of days.
The front is expected to weaken further on Sunday, allowing the ridge to edge northward. However, the front will be invigorated by a passing longwave trough late Sunday into Monday. This will strengthen the south to southwest winds to moderate to fresh levels Monday and Tuesday while the frontal cloud and rain band edges closer to Kauai forcing the ridge to the eastern end of the state. Showers will likely increase a little bit across Kauai and Oahu Monday and Tuesday from current levels as winds and upstream moisture from the southwest boost up. The front is forecast weaken as it moves down the island chain Wednesday through Thursday night. Rainfall and southwest winds may initially be heavy/strong as the front moves across Kauai to Maui County, but weaken as it reaches the Big Island Thursday night, and then dissipates across the Big Island on Friday. Winds will shift northwesterly behind the front, and then shift back southerly as the front dissipates and a ridge builds in.
Aviation
A ridge remains extended over the state today with a stationary front northwest of Kauai. Between these two features, light to moderate southerly winds can be expected to continue. While ridging will help to limit cloud cover and shower activity over the next 24 hours, satellite imagery shows some low level clouds and showers near Kauai and Oahu this morning that have developed along an area of prefrontal convergence. Even though the front northwest of Kauai is not expected to make any progression towards the state today, prefrontal convergence may lead to occasional periods of MVFR conditions…particularly across Kauai. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for the island of Kauai. This will likely be cancelled later this morning as conditions gradually improve.
Marine
A surface ridge over the central portion of the island chain will produce southerly winds through early next week. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds around the Big Island veer out of the south to southwest near Kauai, where locally fresh winds will be possible today and again late Sunday as fronts stall to the northwest. Southwest winds are expected to increase late Tuesday or Wednesday, possibly to Small Craft Advisory strength, as another front nears Kauai. The front will likely move down the island chain late next week.
North and west facing shores will trend up to High Surf Warning (HSW) levels through the day as long period forerunners of the swell have been registering at PacIOOS buoy 51201 (Waimea Bay) over the early morning hours. With the offshore NOAA buoys 51101 and 51001 northwest of the islands continuing to rise, expect a steady rise in surf along north and west facing shores of most other islands through the day that will peak well above HSW later today and Sunday. Due to the significant westerly component of this swell, shadowing could produce varying surf heights on Oahu and Maui County, and west facing shores of the Big Island all the way up to Mahukona will experience significant impacts, including overwash onto vulnerable coastal roadways and beaches. Tracking the offshore buoys, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for all waters exposed to the swell on Saturday and Sunday as seas rise above the 10 feet SCA criteria. Seas will build over Kauai this morning and spread down the island chain coinciding with the rising swell. This swell will decline Sunday night and Monday, followed by a smaller pulse of west- northwest swell Tuesday and Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small into next week due to a lack of easterly trade winds upstream of the islands. A small pulse of south-southwest swell will fade Saturday, with little to no southerly swell expected through the rest of the week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Sunday for Kona, Kohala, Big Island South.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Lanai Leeward.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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