Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers late in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to 60 to 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 67 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 43 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 64 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 66 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 64 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 66 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers late in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to 60 to 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 67 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82 near the shore to 62 to 68 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 46 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy trades and typical trade wind weather will return today and persist through at least Wednesday, followed by the potential for increased showers later in the week.
Discussion
Satellite imagery and the latest surface analysis showed a weakness in the surface ridge north of the state due to a passing cold front. With the tail-end of this front stalling nearby to the northwest, a weak surface trough has formed around Oahu/Maui County. This pattern has disrupted the trades locally, which has led to light winds with northerly background flow setting up over the western end of the state and southeast flow over the eastern end. The recent upper air profiles at Lihue and Hilo reflected dry and stable conditions in place with a strong subsidence inversion, which has limited cloud and shower coverage.
Guidance shows the winds shifting out of the east through the day as high pressure builds to the north and the weak trough shifts west of the area. A weak shortwave trough passing through combined with a slight increase in moisture could be enough to trigger a few light windward showers this morning, especially for Kauai closer to the moisture axis/front and the central islands near the weak trough drifting westward. Otherwise, pleasant trade wind conditions are anticipated.
Upper heights will rise Tuesday through midweek as the upper trough exits to the east. This combined with the moderate to breezy easterly trades will support a more typical trade wind pattern continuing, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the early mornings.
Trade winds may veer out of the southeast and ease slightly, and showers may increase as a mid-to upper-level trough approaches on Thursday and passes over the state on Friday. An increase in high clouds will likely accompany this feature.
Aviation
Light to moderate northerly winds will veer and strengthen to become moderate to breezy northeasterlies later this morning. With a relatively dry and stable airmass in place, shower activity will be limited through the period. However, a weak surface trough near Maui County and remnant moisture from an approaching and dissipating cold front may be enough to help support light showers across mainly windward areas today. In addition, smoke from New Year's Eve fireworks has temporarily dropped visibilities into the MVFR range or lower for a few areas, but these conditions will improve later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail, except for in any passing showers.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.
Marine
A weakening cold front will stall and dissipate just north of Kauai today. A high pressure system will build in north of the state through much of next week with moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast each day through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory was issued this morning for the typical windier zones near Maui and the Big Island lasting through Tuesday. Winds will weaken slightly and shift from a more east to southeast direction with hybrid land and sea breeze elements from Wednesday through Sunday.
The current long period northwest swell will remain steady today and tonight, hovering near low end High Surf Advisory (HSA) thresholds. The current HSA was extended in time through this afternoon for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. Surf heights are forecast to fall just below advisory thresholds by this evening as the swell period continues to decline. A small north swell will also linger through the day today before fading by tonight. A series of reinforcing long period northwest swells will arrive this week, likely bringing north and west shore surf back into advisory levels Thursday through Friday.
South shore surf will remain on the small side over the next 7 days. East shore surf will remain small today, then build from Tuesday into next weekend as trade winds strengthen over and upstream of the island chain.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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