Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 49 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Monday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 49 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Monday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Monday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Cool and stable moderate to locally breezy northeasterly trade winds will continue to focus showers on windward and northern slopes today. Trade winds will strengthen as high clouds thicken tonight and Monday, and an increase in rainfall is possible late Tuesday into Friday as a disturbance aloft moves slowly across the region.
Discussion
Showers remain somewhat active within a declining northeasterly trade wind flow. The trades are continuing a slow decline as a 1027 mb surface high sitting nearly 1000 miles north of Kauai weakens, and winds remain more northeasterly than normal due to the presence of a large surface low centered roughly 1500 miles to the northeast of the state. While dew points within the northeasterly flow have crept up into the lower 60s, they are still low enough to maintain a cool, winter-like feel this morning. This relatively dry flow is capped by a solid inversion between 5000 to 6500 ft, but thermal instability below the inversion continues to be extremely effective in producing shallow showers. As a result, sites on windward and northern slopes have measured 12 hour rainfall totals mostly below one quarter of an inch. Expect a slight increase in dew points today and continued windward shower activity as northeasterly winds drop a bit.
Easterly trade winds will strengthen Monday and Tuesday as surface high pressure rebuilds to the north. Dew points will recover to more typical seasonal values in the low to mid 60s, and a rather typical pattern of windward and mountain showers will prevail. The ridge aloft will break down as a sharp upper-level trough approaches from the west. Initially, the main impact will be a thickening of high clouds as early as tonight.
Wet and breezy trade winds are possible by late Tuesday and may persist into Friday. Broad surface high pressure will persist to the north, keeping the gusty trade winds in place. Meanwhile, the mid- to upper-level trough is expected to move slowly over the region. As a result, expect extensive high cloud cover to linger, along with a moistening and potential destabilizing of the air mass. This points towards a wet trade wind pattern with frequent windward showers periodically spilling over to leeward areas. A decrease in trade winds and shower activity is likely later Friday or Saturday.
Aviation
Moderate to breezy northeast trades will continue into Monday, with mainly light/brief showers moving through periodically over windward and mauka locations. Although VFR conditions will prevail, MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in passing showers.
Marine
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will weaken a bit today, then build north of the islands into Wednesday, and then weaken once again from Thursday onward. Trade winds will decrease slightly today as a result, then show strengthening trends from Monday into Wednesday, and then slight weakening wind speeds by the end of the week. Rough seas are expected to continue over most Hawaiian waters due to a combination of fresh to strong northeast trades, a mix of northeast wind waves and north- northeast (010 to 030 degree) swell moving through the Hawaii region. A combination of the winds and rough seas will continue to support a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) over exposed waters and channels through the first half of this week. The SCA coverage area will likely expand from Monday through Wednesday.
A large, medium-period north to northeast (010-030 degree) swell arriving from a broad gale centered around 1600 nm northeast of the state will support warning level surf for east facing shores and advisory level surf for north facing shores Monday through Tuesday. A smaller north-northwest (340-360 degree) medium period swell will also fill in today, helping to boost surf along west facing shores. A small long period south (180-210 degree) swell will build into the region with a slight bump in south shore surf activity lasting into Tuesday.
A trend back toward a more typical trade wind pattern with seas easing into the second half of next week. Surf along north and west facing shores will remain elevated through Wednesday as medium to long period northwest (300-320 degree) swell energy moves through the region. The next larger northwest (300-320 degree) swell builds in near High Surf Advisory levels along north facing shores from Thursday to Friday.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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