Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to 61 to 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 67 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 67 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to 61 to 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 80 near the shore to 62 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 67 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Cool, stable, and breezy northeasterly trade winds will continue to gradually ease into Sunday, with showers mainly confined to windward and northern slopes. Trade winds will strengthen as high clouds thicken on Monday, and an increase in rainfall is possible late Tuesday into Friday.
Discussion
Cool, stable, and breezy northeasterly trade winds will continue to gradually decline into Sunday. The trades are being driven by a 1031 mb surface high sitting about 1100 miles north of the state, and the winds remain more northeasterly due to the influence of a broad nearly stationary surface low parked about 1500 miles to the northeast. As the high to the north weakens and the low drifts away, winds will ease slightly into Sunday. As dew points within the northeasterly flow hold in the mid to upper 50s, a cool winter-like feel persists, and expect dew points to only slowly climb to the lower 60s by Sunday. While the air mass will continue to be rather dry and capped by a strong low-level inversion, thermal instability in the boundary layer will continue to generate light shower activity across mainly windward and northern slopes, while most leeward areas will be dry.
Easterly trade winds will strengthen Monday and Tuesday as surface high pressure rebuilds to the north. Dew points will recover to more typical seasonal values in the low to mid 60s, and a rather typical pattern of windward and mountain showers will prevail. The ridge aloft will break down as a sharp upper-level trough approaches from the west. Initially, the impact will be a thickening of high clouds as early as Sunday night.
Wet and breezy trade winds are possible by late Tuesday or Wednesday. Broad surface high pressure will persist to the north, likely keeping the gusty trade winds in place. Meanwhile, the mid- to upper-level trough is expected to move closer to the islands. As a result, expect extensive high cloud cover to linger, along with a moistening and potential destabilizing of the air mass. This points towards a wet trade wind pattern with frequent windward showers periodically spilling over to leeward areas.
Aviation
A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly weaken this weekend. Expect breezy trade winds today with decreasing trends into the moderate to locally breezy range by Sunday. A fairly stable atmosphere will produce passing showers mainly over windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail with only brief MVFR conditions possible in showers mainly over windward airfields.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over and immediately south through west of all island mountains. This AIRMET will likely continue through the afternoon today.
Marine
Rough conditions will continue over most Hawaiian waters due to a combination of fresh to strong northeast trades and a mix of north to northeast wind and ground swell moving through. Early morning nearshore buoy observations reflect this with seas hovering a few feet over predicted levels. A combination of the winds and rough seas support the Small Craft Advisory continuing over exposed waters and channels through the weekend.
Guidance shows the winds shifting out of the east early next week and becoming strong. This combined with a large, medium-period northeast swell arriving from a broad gale centered around 1200 nm northeast of the state will support Small Craft Advisory conditions returning for all waters Monday through Tuesday. This northeast swell will likely be large enough to support warning- level surf for east facing shores and advisory-level surf for north facing shores Monday through Tuesday.
A trend back toward a more typical trade wind pattern with seas easing is expected through the second half of next week. Surf along north and west facing shores will trend up as a long-period northwest swell arrives from a broad system emerging out over the far northwest Pacific early next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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