Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 73 to 79 near 3000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 73 to 79 near 3000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 74 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 57 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 74 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A cold front approaching from the northwest will shift winds around to the south today, with breezy conditions expected to develop tonight and continue through Sunday. Rather dry conditions will prevail today, with showers then increasing tonight and Sunday in advance of the front, with a thunderstorm possible Sunday on Kauai. The front will push into the central islands and stall out Sunday night and Monday bringing some showery weather with it and shifting winds northeasterly. The front will dissipate Monday night, with light to moderate trades and fairly typical trade wind weather then expected Tuesday through the end of the work week.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1021 mb high is centered around 1250 miles northeast of Honolulu, while a cold front is located around 800 miles west-northwest of Kauai. The trade winds are breaking down, with winds shifting southeasterly and light to moderate levels early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover over east and southeast facing slopes of Kauai and the Big Island where radar imagery also shows a few showers. Main short term focus is on the upcoming front and the associated weather it will bring to the islands.
The latest model solutions continue to exhibit some differences, but the general trend has been for less of an eastward progression of the front into the island chain. This trend has been reflected in the latest forecast, which is roughly a blend of the previous forecast and the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.
As a result, we expect the approaching front to shift winds southerly today, with winds becoming breezy out of the south and southwest tonight and Sunday. The front will push into the western islands late Sunday, then stall out in the vicinity of the central islands Sunday night and Monday, with moderate north to northeasterly winds expected following frontal passage. The front will dissipate Monday night, with a weak ridge north of the state keeping light to moderate trades in place Tuesday through the end of the work week.
As for the remaining weather details, rather dry weather will prevail today with limited shower activity statewide. Increasing south to southwest flow will bring increasing showers into leeward areas of the smaller islands tonight and Sunday as the front approaches from the northwest, with the most showery conditions on Kauai and Oahu. In fact, there might be enough instability for some heavier showers and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the front over Kauai on Sunday. The most unstable airmass appears to lift northeast of the islands by Sunday night, but we will continue to monitor this closely. The front and its associated band of moisture will then push into the central islands and stall out Sunday night and Monday, bringing some showery weather with it. Meanwhile, the deepest moisture associated with the front will remain north of the Big Island, so rather dry weather will prevail here. In fact if trends continue, further downward adjustments to rain chances may be required for Maui County.
The front appears to dissipate Monday night, with the combination of its remnant moisture and an influx of moisture from the southeast bringing a return of a more typical trade wind pattern featuring mainly windward and mauka showers which should continue through the end of the week.
Aviation
High pressure far northeast of the islands will continue to drift eastward today, as a frontal system approaches the state from the northwest. Light winds will become southeasterly this morning, ahead of this feature, then veer southerly by late this afternoon or evening.
Relatively dry air in place will act to suppress shower activity through this morning. However, isolated showers are expected to develop over the islands and adjacent waters later in the day.
Southerly winds will become breezy by tonight, as the front approaches, and brings frequent showers to Kauai.
No AIRMETS are currently in effect.
Marine
Latest ASCAT pass shows winds have eased to the moderate to fresh range and will continue to ease today, thus the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. An approaching front will veer the wind out of the south to southeast today. Winds will then strengthen slightly to the moderate to locally strong range out of the south to southwest late tonight into Sunday, especially for the western half of the state. The cold front will march down the island chain Sunday afternoon into early next week producing numerous showers and winds out of the north and northeast in the moderate to fresh range or possible slightly stronger behind the front.
The High Surf Advisory for the east facing shores has been cancelled as conditions have dropped below advisory levels. Latest observations show that the northeast swell has dropped about a foot overnight. This trend is expected to continue through today which will translate to surf dropping quickly along east facing shores.
A mix of a small, long period northwest swell and the fading northeast swell mentioned above will provide a slight boost to west facing shores today and tomorrow and allow north facing shore surf to drop more steadily today into Sunday. A large, medium- period, north- northwest (340-350 deg) swell should arrive late Sunday, peak above the warning threshold on Monday. This swell will hold as it transitions to a more northerly direction Tuesday, before slowly subsiding Wednesday into Thursday. In the longer range forecast, an even larger northwest swell may develop late next week with surf heights possibly exceeding warning levels along north facing shores.
An out of season south swell will continue to build today, peak tonight into Sunday near summer average, before declining early next week.
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