Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 63 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to 58 to 66 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Windy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 35 mph. Gusts up to 60 mph decreasing to 50 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tuesday: Windy. Occasional showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 63 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Kohala
Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Windy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 35 mph. Gusts up to 60 mph decreasing to 50 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tuesday: Windy. Occasional showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 63 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Windy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 35 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 63 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to 58 to 66 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 55 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy trade winds will push showers mainly across windward areas through today. Strengthening northeasterly winds will drive a front down the island chain tonight and Tuesday, bringing a period of increased clouds and showers. A cool and relatively dry air mass will move over the islands after the front passes. Expect gradually diminishing trade winds and warmer conditions by the end of the week.
Discussion
Trade winds continue to strengthen this morning as a strong high builds north northwest of the islands. Models show that surging northeast winds will push a front over the islands tonight and Tuesday. Showers accompanying the front will move rather quickly through the island chain, focusing rainfall across windward areas. Significant rainfall totals are not expected. A Wind Advisory that is in effect for portions of Maui and Hawaii Counties through tonight may need to be extended and/or expanded as conditions warrant.
Expect very windy and relatively dry conditions to develop for a day or two after frontal passage early Tuesday, lowering dew points and temperatures. Strong winds and a dry air mass will combine to increase potential for hazardous fire weather. However, relative humidity may not reach critically low levels to warrant the issuance of a Red Flag Warning.
Models show a trough passing northeast of the islands later this week, possibly increasing trade wind showers Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, only a few windward showers are expected. The high north of the islands will weaken Thursday and Friday, causing trade winds to weaken while veering to the east. Another front may move over the islands Sunday.
Aviation
Breezy to locally strong trades will continue today, then strengthen to strong levels for most areas tonight through Tuesday as a front moves through the area from the northeast. Brief periods with MVFR conditions are possible in passing showers, mainly over windward and mauka areas. A band of low clouds and showers accompanying the front tonight into Tuesday could lead to more widespread MVFR conditions with mountain obscuration for most windward/mauka areas.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level moderate turbulence over and downwind of the mountains on all islands due to breezy trade winds. This will continue through at least mid-week.
AIRMET Sierra is now in effect for mountain obscuration on Maui and the Big Island. This will likely persist through daybreak before improving later this morning.
Marine
Strong surface high pressure far north of the area will remain stationary over the next few days, keeping fresh to locally strong trade winds over the nearshore waters. A surge of strong to locally gale force easterly trade winds will increase winds across all local waters, as a cold front pushes down the island chain Monday night into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters zones through Tuesday afternoon except for Paiolo and Alenuihaha Channel which has a Gale Watch starting from this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The SCA will likely need to be extended through at least Wednesday as the trades remain strong and a northeast swell helps to keep wave heights above 10 feet. Trades look to weaken slightly into the moderate to locally strong range by Thursday and Friday.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and elevated through the forecast period. Strengthening trades, coinciding with a large, short period northeast (040 degrees) swell will likely push east shore surf to High Surf Advisory levels early Tuesday through Wednesday. The trade wind and northeast swell combo will also wrap into exposed north-facing shores. This could lead to moderate surges in harbors such as Hilo and Kahului during this time. However, the angle of the northeast swell may have enough of an easterly component to prevent significantly unsafe conditions for Kahului Harbor, so the buoys will be closely monitored as the event unfolds.
A small, medium-period northwest swell will hold through the day today, then decline through mid-week. No significant northwest swells are expected thereafter, until a small, long-period northwest swell is slated to arrive late Friday.
Small mainly background south swell energy is expected through middle of next week. A small, long-period south swell could boost south shore surf from Thursday night through Friday.
Fire weather
As mentioned above, the combination of dry air and strong winds behind a passing front will increase the possibility of hazardous fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. However, forecast relative humidities (RH) remain slightly too high to issue Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag Warnings at this time. We will monitor conditions closely as this situation may change quickly.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel.
Gale Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel.
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