Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 64 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 73 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 64 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 73 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 75 near the shore to 53 to 58 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 86 near the shore to 69 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Light winds will allow for land/sea breeze pattern for the next couple of days, as a weak surface ridge builds over the islands. The result will be a relatively quiet weather pattern with some interior afternoon clouds, but not a lot of showers. Moderate to locally breezy trades will gradually return late Friday into the weekend as a new high approaches the state from the far northwest. Trade winds will then hold into early next week as the high tracks east. A relatively stable airmass and limited moisture should keep shower activity fairly sparse as the trades return.
Discussion
CIMSS MIMIC TPW shows the high moisture values associated with the remnant front band continuing to fade over Maui county while another band of moisture lingers southeast of the Big Island. The sounding profile from this morning shows below average precipitable water vapor over Kauai with slightly above average values over the Big Island. Latest satellite and radar imagery show mostly clear skies with a few clouds and a light shower or two east of Kauai.
A complex gale low far north of the state will pull farther away, allowing a weak subtropical ridge just southeast of the Big Island to gradually move northward and strengthen over the next couple of days. This will keep background winds light into Friday, allowing for land/seabreeze pattern to persist. Winds will switch to onshore by mid- morning, before shifting offshore after sundown each day. Clouds will increase each afternoon along mauka and interior areas with a few light showers, while clouds and showers will clear at night.
On the Big Island, the moisture band just southeast of the Big Island will push northwest late tonight into Thursday as moderate east to southeast winds build back into the area due to the building ridge. This could lead to just a few more showers for exposed windward areas, or for leeward slopes in the afternoon first for Big Island then possibly Maui County and Oahu by Thursday. However, the moderate winds will probably not be strong enough to overcome most diurnal wind circulations.
Friday, a new high of around 1022 mb about 1000 mi northwest of Kauai will spread moderate to locally breezy trades down the chain. The high will weaken and pass several hundred miles north of the chain this weekend, keeping locally breezy trades going. As trades return, expect a few clouds and showers to build along windward and mauka areas, especially at night and ease slightly each afternoon.
Over the weekend, another weak frontal boundary will approach the state from the northwest bringing a slight increase in moisture along the boundary. Model guidance still has some minor disagreements with the amount of moisture, but in general there is a possibility of a slightly increase of light showers embedded in the trades. Trades may get a little bit more showery Sunday as a weak 500 mb shortwave trough passes quickly near or over the islands and raises the subsidence inversion a little for a day or so.
Relatively quiet weather looks to persist into early next week with the surface ridge north of the islands, relatively limited moisture riding in on the trades, and mid-level ridging rebuilding over the islands in the wake of the passing shortwave trough.
Aviation
Light and variable winds are expected today with a surface ridge over the region. Expect afternoon sea breezes to produce interior clouds and limited showers, with some pockets of MVFR conditions possible. Land breezes again this evening and overnight will allow most of the clouds to dissipate. No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are expected today.
Marine
A weak northeast to southwest oriented surface ridge appears to be in the vicinity of the Big Island early this morning. The close proximity of this feature to the state is keeping light and variable winds across the island chain. The forecast guidance indicates the surface ridge will build as it moves up over the state through early Thursday. Therefore, the trade winds will eventually return over most of the islands east of Kauai on Thursday. By Friday, a weakening front moving down from the north-northwest will likely cause the western end of the surface ridge to erode, and be displaced northeast of the state. The weak front may stall just north of Kauai late Friday, and dissipate by early Saturday. At the same time, a new surface high pressure system building far northwest of the region is forecast to produce moderate to locally strong trade winds this weekend. Trade wind speeds may be near the Small Craft Advisory criteria starting Saturday over most of the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island.
The current north-northwest (330-340 degrees) swell continues to produce surf just below the High Surf Advisory (HSA) thresholds along most exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands early this morning. The latest wave model guidance continues to indicate this north-northwest swell will begin to gradually lower starting tonight, and continuing into Saturday. A new north-northwest swell arriving Sunday may boost surf heights slightly along exposed north and west facing shores.
A moderate, long period south to south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swell arriving later today will likely keep surf above typical October heights along south facing shores for the rest of the week. Looking ahead, a similar south (180-190 degrees) swell may arrive Sunday, and continue through early next week. Elsewhere, the weak background flow in the vicinity of the islands is keeping surf small along east facing shores this week.
As the phase of the moon heads toward full this weekend, we are monitoring a sea level anomaly in the vicinity of the islands that may produce higher than predicted water levels starting Saturday or Sunday. If so, a Coastal Flood Statement may be required this weekend during the peak monthly tides.
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