Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then numerous showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 73 to 80 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 73 to 80 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 73 to 80 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 73 to 80 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then numerous showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 52 to 59 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A cold front approaching Kauai from the northwest will continue to produce light to moderate south to southwesterly winds across the state through Monday. A prefrontal cloud and shower bands are forecast near Kauai and Oahu through Monday. The forward motion of the cold front will likely stall near Kauai and Oahu from Monday night into Tuesday and then weaken to a trough. Lighter trade winds and afternoon sea breezes will return from Wednesday and Thursday with a weak high pressure ridge building in just north of the state. Another cold front approaches the islands from the northwest on Friday with enhanced showers possible into next Saturday for the northwestern islands.
Discussion
The satellite weather picture this evening shows a weakening cold front approaching Kauai from the northwest. This frontal boundary is roughly 200 miles northwest of Barking Sands. Prefrontal convergence shower bands are developing in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front with moderate to heavy showers moving into Niihau and western Kauai. A few thunderstorms are also forming within these prefrontal bands and chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the Garden Isle through the early morning hours. These southerly winds will interact with the land and sea breeze wind pattern over each island. Small scale wind convergence cloud bands will drive most of the enhanced rainfall in this weather pattern. Flood advisories are possible for Kauai at some point lasting into Tuesday.
A large low pressure system anchored just south of the Aleutian Islands will bring a weakening cold front into the northwestern Hawaiian Islands into Tuesday. This system will continue to break down the ridge north of the islands lasting into next weekend. Lighter large scale winds means that local island scale land and sea breezes will dominate weather conditions through the week. Southerly winds converging with land and sea breezes will enhance some showers over island interior sections and over western and southern slopes. The highest chances for rainfall in this pattern will be over Niihau, Kauai, Oahu and the Ka'u and Puna slopes of the Big Island. That said, pop up showers are possible over all islands at least through Tuesday.
Slightly more stable conditions are forecast across the state from Wednesday through Thursday as an upper level ridge sets up over the island chain. Models are suggesting afternoon to early evening sea breeze showers during this time period. Slight chances remain for a few thunderstorms over the higher slopes on the Big Island each afternoon.
The next cold front may reach Kauai and Niihau by Friday night and then possibly drift into Oahu by Saturday morning. Expect a brief period of enhanced rainfall along the frontal cloud band as it passes through these northwest islands. Moderate north to northeasterly winds behind the front will produce more stable and cooler conditions as the front passes each island.
Aviation
South to southwest winds continue through Monday as the cold front approaches the state. Weak instability aloft and enhanced low level moisture will lead to enhanced shower activity over Kauai, with isolated thunderstorms possible. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible mainly along south facing slopes and coasts overnight. A surge of deeper moisture will likely bring an increase in showers and the potential for a thunderstorm or two over the Big Island Monday afternoon. Expect periods of MVFR or lower conditions across Kauai tonight and Monday, with predominantly VFR conditions prevailing elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations across Kauai and will likely continue through the night.
Marine
Expect light southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front tonight and Monday. The front will stall near Kauai Monday and a slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast along the boundary. The front weakens in place Tuesday and with variable winds through the rest of the work week as another front approaches from the northwest.
A new northwest (320 degree) swell will build in late tonight into Tuesday, then slowly lower through the rest of the week. Surf heights along both west and north facing shores are forecast to peak around the High Surf Advisory threshold on Monday night and Tuesday.
Background surf expected along south facing shores until Monday morning when a long period south swell moves in. Another longer and slightly larger southwest swell will move in Tuesday, peak Wednesday and slowly subside through the rest of the week. Surf heights along east facing shores will remain small through much of next week due to light winds across the Hawaii Region.
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