Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered light showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 67 to 73 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered light showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered light showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 91 near the shore to 68 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 73 near the shore to 50 to 56 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will focus low clouds and isolated to scattered light showers over windward and mauka areas, especially during night and morning hours. Leeward communities will be mostly dry, but afternoon clouds and a few showers will develop across leeward shores and slopes of the Big Island.
Discussion
There is little change in forecast philosophy from last evening. A persistent surface ridge well north of the islands continues to drive moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters and will keep this flow in place through the forecast period. Satellite loop shows an area of patchy broken low clouds, embedded within trade flow, moving westward across Kauai and surrounding waters. Scattered low clouds to clear skies are noted across the remaining islands this morning. Radar shows isolated to scattered light showers within this scarce cloud cover. Models show our airmass will remain stable as a mid-level ridge southeast of the Big Island builds north over the chain, keeping a low and strong subsidence inversion in place into next week. This will cap cloud development and keep showers on the light side.
Expect little change from the current weather pattern into the weekend, except for a forecast trade wind speed bump toward the end of the week. Low clouds riding the trade flow will generate a few light showers across windward areas, while leeward areas stay mostly dry. Expect increased leeward clouds each afternoon, especially on the Big Island, where a few showers will develop. An upper trough passing over the islands on Thursday will likely deliver some high clouds and may trigger a slight increase in showers. Moisture associated with the remnants of former east Pacific Hurricane Adrian may arrive within trade flow late in the weekend, bringing increased windward showers.
Aviation
Moderate easterly trade winds will continue through the 24-hr forecast period and beyond, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Periods with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible in and around passing showers this morning, especially over the western end of the state where a band of low clouds is moving through. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for north through east sections of the western end of the state for mountain obscuration above 2000 ft due to clouds and showers. This will likely be cancelled later this morning as the band of low clouds shifts west of Kauai.
Marine
A surface ridge will remain far north of the state and maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds throughout the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place over the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Wednesday. This SCA will likely need to be extended beyond Wednesday, since the locally strong trade winds are expected to persist and strengthen slightly in the second half of the week.
Surf along all shores are expected to remain tiny through Friday. Small south and southeast swells will maintain small background surf along south facing shores. In the long range, a series of small to moderate south to south-southwest swells are expected starting this weekend and continuing through the first half of next week.
North facing shores may see a slight pulse out of the north- northwest Wednesday or Thursday. A larger north-northwest swell is possible this weekend, which could produce small surf along north and west facing exposures. East facing shores will remain small through the week before gradually building to modest heights later this week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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