Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Independence Day: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Independence Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
High pressure northeast of the islands will keep moderate trade winds blowing through mid week, with the trades becoming breezy Thursday through the weekend. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, especially during nights and mornings. Leeward communities will be mostly dry, except on the Big Island, where clouds and a few showers are expected to develop each afternoon and evening.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high is centered around 1800 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending southwest to a position around 700 miles north of Kauai. The resulting gradient is producing moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions in windward areas and partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered light showers moving into windward areas and a few decaying showers or sprinkles reaching leeward communities at times. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances.
High pressure will remain in place northeast of the state through mid week, keeping moderate trade winds blowing across the island chain. The high will then settle southward and closer to the area Thursday through the weekend, bringing a return of breezy trades to the islands.
As for the remaining weather details, a rather dry trade wind pattern is expected through mid week, with mid-level ridging holding strong across the region. Showers will be limited primarily to windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings, although a stray shower may reach leeward areas at times. Mid-level troughing developing just north of the islands in combination with stronger trade wind speeds, should bring an increase in trade wind showers beginning Wednesday night and continuing through next weekend.
Aviation
Moderate easterly trade winds will continue through the 24-hr forecast period and beyond, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Periods with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible in and around passing showers this morning, especially over the eastern end of the state where a band of low clouds has moved in. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for north through east sections of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island for mountain obscuration above 2000 ft due to clouds and showers.
Marine
A surface ridge far north of the state will slowly build far north of the state over the next few days. Moderate to locally strong trade winds are expected throughout the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place over the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Wednesday. This SCA will likely need to be extended beyond Wednesday, since the locally strong trade winds are expected to persist and strengthen slightly in the second half of the week.
Surf along all shores is expected to remain flat to tiny through Friday. Small south and southeast swells will maintain small background surf along south facing shores. In the long range, a low pressure system from the Tasman Sea to the east of New Zealand, has generated a southwest swell that may boost surf heights along south facing shores over the upcoming weekend.
North facing shores may see a slight pulse out of the north- northwest Wednesday or Thursday. A larger north-northwest swell is possible this weekend, which could produce small surf along north and west facing exposures. East facing shores will remain small through the week before gradually building to modest heights later this week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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